\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 55 Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) )
Events
The company released 2022q1 results, showing that the company's revenue in 2022q1 was 3.554 billion yuan (+ 51.03%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 249 million yuan (+ 30.39%).
Comments
22q1's revenue side performed well, and the profit growth rate was lower than that of revenue
22q1's high revenue growth is mainly due to the significant improvement of the company's operation efficiency and the continuous improvement of the distribution capacity of chain stores ("323 new regulations" and "700" strategy landing bonus + digital management of chain stores gradually appear, and the proportion of group purchase channels increases steadily) The continuous increase in the number of direct supply terminal outlets (more than 30000 customers of the company's retail outlets in 21 years, 273 new chain stores in total, and the total number of stores of 22q1 company is expected to remain stable and upward) has led to the continuous and substantial growth of operating revenue.
The profit growth rate of 22q1 is lower than that of revenue growth or mainly due to changes in product structure: the proportion of famous liquor revenue such as Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) of 22q1 company in peak season is higher than that of previous years (the profit margin of famous liquor channel is lower than that of fine liquor) and the slight impact of the epidemic in March on the sales of high margin fine liquor may be one of the important reasons why the profit growth rate is lower than that of revenue growth.
Structural changes have led to a slight decline in profitability and a continuous improvement in the ability to take goods
Compared with the same period last year, the gross profit margin of 22q1 decreased by 5.36 and 1.13 percentage points to 15.26% and 7.06%, and the profitability decreased. Considering that the sales expense rate of 22q1 decreased by 3.01 points to 6.57% compared with the same period last year, and the sales expense rate and management expense rate decreased by 2.67 and 0.24 percentage points to 5.28% and 1.18% respectively, we believe that the decline in the profitability of 22q1 company is mainly due to structural problems. In addition, the advance payment of 22q1 company was 1.778 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 334 million yuan), and the delivery capacity continued to improve; 22q1 operating cash flow was 150900 yuan (a year-on-year increase of 512 million yuan), and the company's operating cash flow performance was stable.
The profit side has strong month on month certainty, and is optimistic about the profit elasticity brought by the simultaneous rise of the volume and price of fine wine
In the short term: as the two quarter (Baijiu traditional off-season) sales of products are mainly high Maori boutique, and the company's market layout is nationwide, the epidemic situation in the layout area is aggravated or has limited impact on the overall sales of the company. At the same time, considering that the company is still in the release period of price increase bonus of Diaoyutai Tiegai + incremental contribution period of new products under the background of good sales of famous wines (the company has successively launched new products with high gross profit such as golden wine ghost, Jinxi wine and thousand yuan lotus, and will launch more fine wines at the same time), it is expected that the profit level of 22q2 company will rise steadily and have strong certainty.
Throughout the year: the volume and price of non-standard products rise together + the release of dividends from channel reform = profit performance may exceed expectations. We believe that the enhancement of channel and brand strength will continue to drive the volume of standard products - drive the revenue scale to exceed expectations, and the customized fine wine will continue to rise in both volume and price - drive the revenue and profit scale to exceed expectations. Among them, the quality of single stores is expected to continue to improve under the condition of an average annual high-quality growth of 300 stores; Under the background of steady growth of famous wines, high margin fine wines such as lotus wine are expected to continue to contribute to profit elasticity.
Profit forecast and valuation
Considering that the company's "high fidelity" product system and omni-channel sales network are its core competitiveness, and the volume of customized fine wine and continuous improvement of channels are the growth points, the company has high growth in the future. It is estimated that the revenue growth rate of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 31.8%, 27.3% and 23.7% respectively; The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 43.4%, 29.2% and 26.7% respectively; EPS is 2.3, 3.0 and 3.8 yuan / share respectively; PE was 16, 12 and 10 times respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Catalyst: Baijiu demand is expected to recover.
Risk tips: 1. Repeated epidemics lead to lower sales than expected; 2. Fidelity risk; 3. The effect of store expansion was less than expected.
