\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 867 Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600867) )
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report. In 2021, the company’s revenue was 3.268 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.99%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 1.308 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 40.69%, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent of 1.105 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.68%.
In 2021q4, the company’s revenue was 813 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.05%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 241 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 38.12%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent was 204 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 0.18%.
The company previously released the first quarter forecast. In 2022q1, it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 817 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 142.63%; It is expected to realize a net profit of 371 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.36%.
The performance growth is in line with expectations, and the investment income is thickened, which belongs to the net profit of the parent company. The performance growth of the company in 2021 and 2022q1 was in line with expectations, and the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was significantly higher than that of non net profit deducted, mainly due to more non recurring profits and losses (a total of 210 million yuan in 21 years, about 450 million yuan in 22q1, mainly due to the reduction of Xiamen Amoytop Biotech Co.Ltd(688278) equity). The steady growth of the company’s performance is mainly driven by the high volume of insulin glargine and the stabilization and recovery of the second-generation insulin.
The third-generation insulin was rapidly increased, and the second-generation insulin grew steadily. According to the company’s announcement, in 2021, the company’s revenue of insulin analogues (third generation) was + 205% year-on-year, with a revenue of 400 million yuan. We judge that most of them were insulin glargine (previously, the company disclosed that the cumulative revenue in the first three quarters exceeded 279 million yuan, an increase of about 250% compared with the previous year). According to WeChat official account, the commercialization of glargine was successful. At the end of 2020, at the end of 2021, the number of hospitals covering more than two hospitals at the end of 2022Q1 was 2200+, 3600+, 3800+. In terms of recombinant human insulin (second generation), the revenue in 2021 was 2.42 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.8%. In 2021, the gross profit margins of the company’s second-generation insulin and third-generation insulin were 87.89% and 91.21% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 0.69pct and 0.90pct respectively, mainly due to the improvement of scale effect and operation quality.
R & D continues to advance and the product portfolio continues to upgrade. The company’s first oral hypoglycemic drug, sitagliptin phosphate, was approved for listing in August 21, while insulin Aspartate Injection and sitagliptin metformin tablets (II) were registered and approved at the same time in October 21. Insulin aspart 50 and 30 have completed phase III clinical treatment, and received NDA acceptance in July 21. It is expected to be approved in 22 years; The application for parallel phase III clinical and phase I clinical of the fourth generation insulin overspeed effect lispro insulin injection (bclispro) was approved in October 21. Soluble glargine lispro double insulin injection (thdb0207) was approved for clinical use in March 2022. GLP-1 product liraglutide submitted a pre NDA application in December 21. A new class of drugs for diabetes treatment, three target inhibitors, was approved in June 21. The phase III clinical trial of second-generation insulin registered in the EU has been completed. The production base of insulin glargine and insulin aspart is expected to meet the EU / USFDA certification in 22 years. The new drug of uric acid was introduced into the field of hyperuricemia and gouty in June 21, and it has been approved for two years. Three target inhibitor of diabetes mellitus (THDBH101 capsule) was approved in June 21.
Profit forecast: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.949 billion yuan, 2.024 billion yuan and 1.437 billion yuan respectively, with the corresponding growth rates of 49.0%, 3.9% and – 29% respectively; The corresponding PE is 11x, 11x and 15x respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the price of insulin is reduced due to the influence of policy; The promotion of insulin glargine was not as expected; Intensified market competition; Pledge risk of major shareholders.
