\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 048 Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021, realizing an operating revenue of 284933 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.20%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 27.388 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.39%; EPS2. 29 yuan / share, a year-on-year decrease of 5.61%; 5.8 yuan cash dividend for every 10 shares, with a dividend rate of 50.06%; The sales volume reached 534929 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.38%.
Sales decreased and prices increased, focusing on deep cultivation in the city. In 2021, the company achieved a sales area of 333302 million m3, a year-on-year decrease of 2.23%, a sales amount of 534929 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.38%, and the cumulative average sales price was 16049 yuan / m2, an increase of 8.81% over 14750 yuan / m2 in 2020. The company’s sales contribution rate in 38 core cities reached 78%, up 3PCT from 75% in 2020. In terms of sub regions, the sales of Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta account for 53%, an increase of 1PCT compared with 2020, indicating that the company is making efforts in the core city circle. There are 17 cities with sales of more than 10 billion yuan in a single city, an increase of 2 compared with 2020. Among them, Guangzhou and Foshan have achieved a total sales scale of more than 92 billion yuan, Hangzhou has exceeded 30 billion yuan for the first time, and Nanjing and Beijing have exceeded 20 billion yuan. The effect of urban deep cultivation is remarkable.
Land acquisition efforts have decreased, focusing on high-quality areas. In 2021, the company added 145 new projects, with a new capacity area of 27.22 million m3, lower than the sales area, a year-on-year decrease of 15%, and the land acquisition equity ratio was 72%; The expansion amount of new projects was 185.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21%; Throughout the year, the floor price of the company was 6821 yuan / m2, a year-on-year decrease of 8%. The company’s land acquisition strength was 34.71%, down 12.08pct from 46.79% in 2020. Among the company’s new soil storage, the amount of projects in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta accounted for 54%, up 7pct from 2020, indicating that the company adheres to the deep cultivation strategy of “core city + Urban Agglomeration” and focuses on high-quality areas with high contribution to replenishment sales.
Revenue growth, performance decline, gross profit margin decline, and effective expense control. In 2021, the company’s total operating revenue was 285024 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.19%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 27.388 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.39%. The net profit of the company declined significantly, mainly due to the decline of the gross profit margin of the company by 5.69pct to 26.8%, of which the gross profit margin of real estate sales business was 27.13%, down 6.35pct from 2020, which is consistent with the downward trend of industrial profit margin. In terms of sub regions, the gross profit margin of South China, East China, central China, North China, West, northeast and overseas regions decreased by 8.58, 0.93, 6.09, 9.60, 6.64, 2.80 and 18.99pct respectively. The net profit margin of the company was 13.05%, a decrease of 3.42pct compared with 2020, which was less than the decrease of gross profit margin. The company continued to improve quality and efficiency. In terms of cost control, according to the adjusted data in 2020, the company’s sales, management and financial expense rates were 2.59%, 1.91% and 1.19% respectively, a decrease of 0.24, an increase of 0.13 and a decrease of 0.11pct respectively compared with 2020. The company continues to strictly control expenses, and the overall expense rate is lower than that in 2020.
The leverage ratio was healthy and the financing cost decreased. The company’s asset liability ratio excluding contract liabilities is 68%, net debt ratio is 55.1%, cash short debt ratio is 1.86, all three red lines meet the standard, and the asset liability structure is balanced and stable. The operating cash flow of the company is 10.551 billion yuan, which has been positive for four consecutive years. By the end of 2021, the monetary capital was 171384 billion yuan, with abundant cash on hand. The company realized a return amount of 502 billion yuan, with a return rate of 93.8%, ranking high in the industry. The overall average financing cost of the company is 4.46%, which is 0.31pct lower than the overall average financing cost of 4.77% in 2020.
Property continued to strengthen and business actively expanded. 1) Poly property continued to grow: its revenue reached 10.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.2%; The area under management is 465 million square meters, the contracted area is 656 million square meters, and 2428 contracted projects. 2) Poly commerce actively expanded its business scale: by the end of 2021, 35 shopping centers had been opened, with an opening area of 2.475 million square meters; The projects under operation and preparation are distributed in 38 cities such as Guangzhou, Shanghai and Wuhan. 3) Poly wine management and operation Specialty: by the end of 2021, 20 hotels and conference centers and nearly 5000 guest rooms had been opened. 4) Continue to layout long-term rental apartments: by the end of 2021, there were 43 projects in operation, covering core cities such as Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou and Chengdu.
Investment suggestion: the company is a leading central enterprise in the industry, with stable operation and healthy leverage ratio. The company pays attention to urban deep cultivation and focuses on replenishment in high-quality areas. Strong operation ability and large scale of property management; Actively layout businesses such as commerce and long-term rental apartments. In the future, with the emergence of high land price projects, the gross profit margin may be under pressure. Based on the company’s annual report, we reduced the net profit attributable to the parent company from 30.174 billion and 32.232 billion to 29.218 billion and 30.683 billion respectively from 2022 to 2023, adjusted the corresponding EPS from 2.52 and 2.69 yuan to 2.44 and 2.56 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE was 7.53x and 7.17x, maintaining the “buy” rating. (the historical data in the financial model after the report are the data before the adjustment statement)
Risk tip: the sales of new houses are less than expected, the completion of houses is less than expected, the house price has fallen sharply, and the business development does not meet expectations
