\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 884 Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) )
Key investment points
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 2320%. The performance forecast was on the line, which was in line with market expectations. In 2021, the company's revenue was 20.699 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 151.94%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2320%. The previous performance forecast showed that the annual net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.1-3.39 billion yuan, which was in line with market expectations; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.885 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1251.1%; In 2021, the gross profit margin was 25.03%, with a year-on-year increase of 6.61 PCT; The net interest rate was 17.25%, with a year-on-year increase of 14.75pct. In 2021q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 566 million yuan, and the month on month decline was due to the provision of asset impairment loss. In 2022q1, the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 750850 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 148% - 181%, which is in line with market expectations.
The negative electrode business shipped 100000 tons, with both volume and profit. It is expected to maintain high growth in 2022. In 2021, the company shipped 101000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 71%, of which Q4 is expected to ship about 30000 tons, further improving month on month. The company's Baotou phase II cathode production capacity is 60000 tons, and it is expected to reach the production capacity in 2022q3. We expect the company to ship about 25000 tons in 2022q1, with an annual shipment target of 160000180000 tons in 2022, an increase of 60% year-on-year. In terms of profitability, the company's annual net profit per ton is 6000 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 65%, and its profitability has been significantly improved. In 2022, the profit per ton of Q1 is expected to increase slightly to 6 Renhe Pharmacy Co.Ltd(000650) 0 yuan / ton month on month; The company began to raise prices successively in the second half of 2021. We expect that with the increase of the proportion of graphitization integration in 2022, the company's single ton profit is expected to further increase.
The expansion of negative electrode capacity was accelerated and the integrated layout was further improved. The company has a negative electrode capacity of 120000 tons and a graphitization capacity of 42000 tons. At present, the negative electrode capacity of 60000 tons and the graphitization capacity of 52000 tons in Baotou phase II are expected to reach the production capacity in Q3 in 2022. In addition, the company plans to build a 200000 ton Meishan integrated production capacity base, of which 100000 tons in phase I is expected to be put into trial production before the end of 2022. The company expects that by the end of 2022, the company's negative material production capacity will reach 200000 tons and the graphitization production capacity will exceed 100000 tons. We expect the negative electrode shipment of the company to reach 160000180000 tons in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 60% +.
After the acquisition, the polarizer business operated well and contributed a stable profit increment to the company. From February to December 2021, the company sold 110 million square meters of polarizers, realized a main business income of 99.4 yuan and a net profit of 1.197 billion yuan. The company has successively carried out production expansion plans for polarizer front-end production lines in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang and Mianyang, Sichuan. In 2022, we expect the contribution of polarizer to the parent company's net profit of 1.5-1.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 30%.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the acceleration of the company's capacity expansion, we raised the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 3.27/4.273 billion yuan to 3.36/4.316 billion yuan in 20222023. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 will be 5.408 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 1.57/2.01/2.52 yuan in 20222024, with a year-on-year increase of 1% / 28% / 25%. The current market value corresponds to 16x / 12x / 10x PE from 2022 to 2024, giving 25xpe in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 39.25 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected, and the production capacity of polarizer is lower than expected.
