\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 594 Byd Company Limited(002594) )
Core view
In the first quarter of 2022, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 174% - 300% year-on-year, and the automobile business continued to improve month on month. The company released the performance forecast for the first quarter. In the first quarter of 2022, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 650950 million yuan (year-on-year + 174% ~ + 300%, month on month + 8% ~ + 58%), and the basic earnings per share of 0.22-0.33 yuan (year-on-year + 175% ~ + 313%, month on month + 5% ~ + 57%). Among them, the net profit of automobile + battery (BYD minus BYD Electronics) was 520870 million yuan (2021q1 was - 290 million yuan and 2021q4 was 500 million yuan), which increased year-on-year and continued to improve month on month. In the context of rising raw material costs, the stock orders in the fourth quarter of last year were mainly delivered in the first quarter of this year. The terminal retail price did not rise and was at the low point of single vehicle profit. The company's net profit maintained growth on a month on month basis, and the margin of profitability improved significantly. Looking forward to the second quarter of 2022, the company's sales volume continues to climb, the terminal price has increased for several rounds, the price of lithium carbonate has stabilized and corrected, and it is expected that the profitability will be further released and improved.
In the first quarter of 2022, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was excellent, and the market share continued to lead. In the first quarter of 2022, the company sold 286000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 423% and a month on month increase of 8%. Among them, the sales of pure electric / plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles were 143000 / 142000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 271% / 857% and a month on month increase of 6% / 11%. In March alone, the company sold 105000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 333% and a month on month increase of 19%. Among them, the sales of pure electric / plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles were 5.451000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 229% / 615% and a month on month increase of 24% / 14% respectively. As of March 2022, the company's market share in the new energy passenger vehicle market was about 23%, and the market share in the first quarter was about 24%.
In 2021, the operating revenue increased by 38%, and the net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 28% year-on-year. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 216.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38%; The gross profit was 28.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28%; The gross profit margin / net profit margin were 13.0% / 1.4% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.4/1.3pct. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the revenue was 71 billion yuan, an increase of 38% year-on-year and 31% month on month; The gross profit was 9.3 billion yuan, an increase of 9% year-on-year and 29% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 600 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27% and a month on month decrease of 53%; The gross profit margin / net profit margin are 13.1% / 0.8% respectively.
The model matrix tends to be improved, and the technical upgrading enhances the product power. In 2022, the company is expected to successively launch the blockbuster models under dynasty.com, ocean.com, Tengshi brand and high-end brand, constantly enrich the product matrix and help the company hit a higher sales target. With the continuous release of the company's advanced technologies such as DM-I / dm-p super hybrid, blade battery and E platform 3.0, the competitiveness of new models will continue to improve, and the profitability is expected to continue to improve with cost reduction, efficiency increase and scale effect.
Risk tip: rising raw material prices, repeated epidemics and chip shortage affect capacity release and delivery, and the sales of new models are less than expected.
Investment suggestion: we maintain the profit forecast. It is estimated that the EPS in 22 / 23 / 24 will be 2.20/4.24/7.60 yuan, corresponding to pe109 / 56 / 31 times, and maintain the "overweight" rating.
