\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 048 Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) )
Core view
The net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 5.4% and the gross profit margin was under pressure. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 284.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 27.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%. The main reason for increasing income without increasing profit is the decline in the profit margin of real estate projects. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company was 26.8%, a decrease of 5.8pct compared with the end of the previous year, which is consistent with the downward trend of the overall profit margin of the industry. In the future, with the continuous embodiment of high priced projects, the performance of the gross profit margin of the company will still be under pressure.
Sales remained stable and resources were reasonably supplemented. In 2021, the company achieved sales of 534.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%; The sales area was 33.33 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%. The sales contribution of the company’s 38 core cities reached 78%, the total sales of the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta accounted for 53%, and the regional structure remained stable; 17 cities with 10 billion contracts have been signed in a single city, and the effect of urban deep cultivation is remarkable. There were 145 expansion projects in the whole year. When the market returned to rationality in the second half of the year, the company quickly increased investment and obtained high-quality plots with low premium rates such as Guangzhou, Nanjing and Xiamen. The floor price expanded by the company in the whole year was 6821 yuan / m2, a year-on-year decrease of 8%. The company adheres to the strategy of “core city + Urban Agglomeration” and focuses on high-quality areas with high contribution to replenishment sales. The total expansion amount in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River delta accounts for 54%, up 7pct from last year.
Excellent financial performance. By the end of 2021, the company’s net debt ratio was 55.1%, the asset liability ratio excluding accounts receivable was 69.1%, the cash short debt ratio was 2.7, and the “three red lines” index was in the green grade. In 2021, the company realized a return amount of 502 billion yuan, with a return rate of 93.8%, ranking high in the industry, and has maintained positive cash flow from operating activities for four consecutive years. By the end of 2021, the scale of interest bearing liabilities of the company was 338.2 billion yuan, and the comprehensive financing cost was about 4.46%, a decrease of 31bp compared with the end of last year, continuing to maintain the leading edge in the industry. The development of real estate ecological industry has accelerated. In 2021, poly property’s area under management reached 465 million square meters, the contract area reached 656 million square meters, and 2428 contract management projects, realizing an operating revenue of 10.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.2%. Poly commerce has actively expanded its business scale. It has opened 35 shopping centers in 38 cities including Guangzhou, Shanghai and Wuhan, covering an area of 2475000 square meters. Poly wine management has opened 20 hotels and conference centers with nearly 5000 guest rooms. The company continued to lay out the rental market and rented 43 apartment projects in the battalion commander, covering core cities such as Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou and Chengdu. In terms of real estate finance, the cumulative management scale of the company’s funds exceeded 170 billion yuan.
Risk tip: the company’s sales and settlement progress is less than expected, and the profit margin of settlement projects is less than expected.
Investment suggestion: the company seeks fine development. As a leader of central enterprises with stable operation and excellent credit, it is expected to benefit from the new pattern of the industry and further improve the sales scale and market share. The contract liabilities of the company at the end of 2021 were 416 billion yuan, which can better support the future revenue growth. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 and 23 will be 28.86 billion yuan and 29.98 billion yuan respectively, the EPS corresponding to the latest share capital will be 2.41 and 2.50 yuan, and the PE corresponding to the latest share price will be 7.6 and 7.3x, maintaining the “buy” rating
