\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 677 Zhejiang Meida Industrial Co.Ltd(002677) )
Key investment points
The company released the first quarterly report of 2022:
2022q1: income, return to parent and deduction of non-profit points were 410 million, 120 million and 120 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 12%, 21% and 215%.
Income: short-term disturbance of the epidemic, Q1 growth rate
The growth rate of the company's 21q4 / 22q1 revenue is + 6% and + 12% respectively. Considering the high online growth rate of the company in 2021 and some of the Q4 e-commerce revenue lags behind the recognition, the combined calculation of Q1 and Q4 revenue may more accurately reflect the company's business trend. The total revenue of 21q4 and 22q1 was 1.05 billion, with a growth rate of 9% compared with that of 20q4 and 21q1. Considering the negative impact of Haining epidemic on the company's delivery and production in mid March, the company is expected to maintain double-digit growth capacity.
Profit: cost compression and tax return jointly promote the improvement of profit margin
Gross profit margin: Q1 was 49.8%, year-on-year -1.3pct, which is expected to be caused by cost pressure; Expense ratio: Overall, the expense ratio of Q1 sales, management and R & D was 11.1%, 4.7% and 3.3% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 1.3, + 0.3 and - 0.3pct; Net interest rate: Q1 net interest rate was 29.4%, yoy+2.1pct, of which other income items increased by 13.78 million over the same period, mainly due to the impact of embedded software tax rebate.
Business highlights:
Accounts receivable in Q1 reached 71.27 million, with a year-on-year increase of 49.57 million, yoy + 228%. It is expected to provide credit concessions for some dealers or a means to promote revenue growth for the company from this year. According to the official account of Haining, the local response level has been reduced to grade III since April 16th, and logistics traffic has basically recovered. The company's business interference is expected to gradually decrease.
Investment suggestions:
Considering that the epidemic situation in Haining has been basically controlled, we maintain the previous performance forecast. It is estimated that the company's revenue in 22-24 years will be 2.54 billion, 2.93 billion and 3.27 billion, yoy + 17%, 15% and 12%; It is estimated that the performance in 22-24 years will be RMB 770 million, RMB 900 million and RMB 1 billion, yoy + 16%, 17% and 12%. Corresponding to 12, 10 and 9 times PE. The company's revenue growth is steady, the profit margin level remains good under the pressure of raw materials, the current cost performance is outstanding, and the "buy" proposal is maintained.
Risk tips:
The entry of cross-border giants has led to the deterioration of competition, less than expected channel expansion, more than expected decline in real estate and a sharp rise in raw materials
