\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 617 Junhe Pumps Holding Co.Ltd(603617) )
Events: ① on April 19, the company released its annual report for 2021, with an annual revenue of 975 million, yoy + 32.15%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 92 million, yoy- 5.08%. Single Q4, revenue 319 million, yoy + 26.80%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 14 million, yoy-52.32%. ② The company released the first quarterly report of 2021, realizing a revenue of 238 million, yoy + 8.36%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 22 million, yoy-29.92%.
Core view: performance meets expectations. In 2021, the revenue side of the company achieved rapid growth, mainly due to strong downstream demand, and the construction of Fenghua Industrial Park broke through the bottleneck of production capacity. By the end of 2021, the company’s orders on hand had reached 500 million, with sufficient momentum for follow-up development. In terms of products, under the background of capacity transfer and downstream concentration improvement, the company’s leading position in household water pump segmentation has been further consolidated; Some products of commercial pump business have entered the sales stage; The promotion of private brands was smooth, and online sales showed a positive trend. Various businesses have developed steadily and the company has accelerated its growth.
The annual performance of 021 was in line with expectations, and the revenue of Q1 company increased steadily in 2022
In 2021, the revenue side of the company achieved rapid growth, mainly due to: ① strong demand: under the influence of overseas epidemic, the consumption of domestic water pumps increased and the demand for products was relatively strong; ② Capacity improvement: in June 2021, the Fenghua intelligent industrial park construction project of phase I of the company’s “1.25 million water pumps project” and “3.75 million water pumps project” was basically put into operation, breaking through the capacity bottleneck and solving the problem of excessive production line load, and the company’s ability to undertake orders was further improved. In Q1 2022, under the background of high base, the company’s revenue still achieved relatively stable growth, mainly because the company’s current monthly production capacity can reach 500000 units / month, with a large year-on-year increase in production capacity.
Profitability is under short-term pressure and maintains a high level of expense control
In 2021, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 22.55%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.89 PCT, mainly due to the rise in the price of raw materials and the depreciation of fixed assets; The net profit margin of sales was 9.47%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.71 PCT, and the profitability was under pressure. The company maintained a high level of expense control. During the whole year, the expense rate was 12.77%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.47 PCT, of which the sales expense rate was 2.45%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.12 PCT, mainly due to ① the increase of commission service fee with revenue, and ② the sales of independent brand Amazon were greatly affected by sea freight; The management expense rate was 5.68%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.89 PCT, mainly due to the increase of personnel salary and operation cost of intelligent Fenghua plant; The R & D expense rate was 3.10%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.61 PCT, mainly because the company increased the R & D of commercial water pumps and DC intelligent products; The financial expense ratio was 1.54%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.07 PCT, mainly due to the increase of interest and bill discount expenses. In addition, the short-term change of income tax rate and interest expense of convertible bonds are mainly reflected in Q4, which has a great impact on the profitability of a single quarter. In 2022, the gross profit margin of Q1 company was 21.43%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.49 PCT; The net profit margin on sales was 9.34%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.10 PCT, mainly due to the decrease in income from asset disposal. The expense rate during the period was 12.62%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.72 PCT.
The construction of commercial pumps and private brands is smooth, and the leading position of household pumps is becoming more and more stable. The construction of commercial pumps and private brands is smooth. ① Breakthroughs have been made in commercial pump products. The sample research and development of some models of products have been completed and entered the substantive sales stage. 210100 units have been sold and shipped in 2021, with sales of 55 million. ② Private brands grew positively. In 2021, the sales revenue reached 19.451 million, a new high, of which online sales reached 9.1777 million, a year-on-year increase of 125.14%, showing a positive trend. In the post epidemic era, well-known brands and supermarket customers in the industry have further improved their online sales channels, and changed from the sales mode focusing on the operation of physical stores to the development of Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) together, thus covering a wider range of end customer groups and driving the agglomeration of the company’s downstream market share. The leading position of the company’s household water pump segment market is becoming more and more stable.
There are abundant orders on hand and sufficient impetus for follow-up development
The company’s orders on hand rose quarter by quarter. By the end of 2021, the company’s orders on hand had reached 500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.76%, and there were abundant orders. Since the company generally does not prepare inventory, and the inventory of various categories at the end of the period is mainly the orders of foreign customers that have not been delivered, the inventory can be used as a forward-looking indicator of the company’s revenue. By the end of 2021, the company’s inventory had reached 324 million, a record high. At the same time, the company actively responded to the trend growth of orders and the fluctuation rise of bulk material prices, increased raw material reserves, and had sufficient momentum for subsequent development.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.187 billion yuan, 1.478 billion yuan and 1.886 billion yuan respectively, yoy + 21.71%, 24.50% and 27.58%; Net profit attributable to parent company 57、 1. 9.6 billion yuan, yoy + 28.55%, 31.82%, 24.90%; Corresponding to p E32 9、24.9、20.0X。 The six-month target price is 15.01 yuan, corresponding to 25 times the P / E ratio in 2022. For the first time, it gave an investment rating of overweight-a.
Risk tip: the economic growth rate has fallen sharply, and the effect of infrastructure weakness repair is not as good as expected; Overseas market development is blocked; Market competition intensifies. The control of overseas epidemic was less than expected, and the Sino US trade friction intensified; Exchange rate fluctuation risk; Raw material price fluctuation risk.
