\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 594 Byd Company Limited(002594) )
Event: Recently, Byd Company Limited(002594) released the performance forecast for the first quarter: the net profit in the first quarter is expected to be 650950 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 174% - 300% Byd Company Limited(002594) electronic released the performance warning of the first quarter: the net profit in the first quarter is expected to decline by 75% - 85%.
The first quarter performance was better than expected. Excluding the performance of Byd Company Limited(002594) electronics, the net profit of automobile and other businesses in 2022q1 is about 550850 million. The price of Q1 lithium carbonate continued to rise, and the price rise of the company's complete vehicle (February 1 and March 16) was less reflected in the first quarter. Therefore, this performance level was better than the market expectation under the background of the significant increase of cost pressure in the first quarter. We expect that the main reasons are: 1) the cost rate decreases. The cost rates of Byd Company Limited(002594) automobile business (and photovoltaic) in 2021h1, 2021h2 and Byd Company Limited(002594) are about 15% and 12.3% respectively. Under the background of medium and high growth of 2022q1 automobile business revenue (expected to be about 15% - 20%), the expense rate is expected to decline further in the first quarter; 2) The company's series of cost reduction measures have brought remarkable results, and the cost of other links in the supply chain has decreased.
2022q2 performance is expected to continue to improve. We expect that the company's performance is expected to further improve significantly in the second quarter, mainly due to: 1) the price rise of models in the first quarter will be reflected in the second quarter; 2) The high gross margin models listed this year, such as song prodmi, song maxdmi, Han DMI and destroyer 05, will be in large quantities in the second quarter; 3) As the sales volume continues to rise, the scale effect is expected to further appear: the depreciation and amortization of single vehicle decreases and the cost of single vehicle decreases.
The medium and long-term space is still large. In the long run: 1) Byd Company Limited(002594) dmi series models have few competitive products and are expected to maintain a high growth rate in the next few years; 2) Pure electric vehicles will also show a trend of rapid growth. New models such as seals and sea lions will open a new era of Byd Company Limited(002594) pure electric vehicles; 3) The re layout of Tengshi brand (brand-new products, marketing and channels) is expected to further drive the high-end of Byd Company Limited(002594) brand; 4) If the price of lithium carbonate and other raw materials falls, the performance flexibility of Byd Company Limited(002594) will be greater in the next few years.
Investment suggestion: maintain the "Buy-A" rating. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 8.01, 13.55 and 20.9 billion yuan respectively. Corresponding to the current market value, PE is 89, 52.6 and 34.1 times respectively, maintaining the "Buy-A" rating and the six-month target price is 360 yuan / share.
Risk tip: the subsidy has declined sharply; The promotion of new products is less than expected
