\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 078 Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) )
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021, and the annual revenue reached 31.997 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.21%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.957 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.39%; The net profit after deducting non-profit was 2.932 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.44%. Among them, Q4 achieved a revenue of 8.282 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.19%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 189 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 66.98%; The net profit after deducting non-profit was 211 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 64.62%. The decline in net profit was mainly caused by the double reduction policy and the rise of energy costs.
The release of new production capacity led to the growth of revenue: the company’s new production capacity of 450000 tons of cultural paper and 800000 tons of box board corrugated paper in Shandong and Laos was released. In 2021, the sales of paper products and pulp were 5.23 million tons and 1.07 million tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 37.63% and 10.31%, and the revenue increased by 48.21% in 2021. In terms of products, the revenue of uncoated cultural paper / coated paper / dissolved pulp / kraft liner paper accounts for 27%, 13%, 10% and 31%. Specifically, 1) cultural paper: uncoated cultural paper and coated paper achieved revenue of 8.671 billion yuan and 4.099 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20.29% and 16.8%. 2) Packaging paper: box board paper and coated base paper achieved revenue of 9.87 billion yuan and 1.61 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 136.59% and 94.98%. 3) Household paper achieved a revenue of 857 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.01%. In addition, the revenue of dissolved pulp was RMB 3.255 billion, a year-on-year increase of 49.46%, and that of chemical mechanical pulp was RMB 1.827 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.25%. Quarter by quarter, the performance of 21q4 is under pressure, mainly due to the impact of the increase of imported low-cost paper and the double reduction policy of education, the downturn of supply and demand and price, and the sharp rise of energy costs such as superimposed coal. After the sharp rise of 21h1 paper price, the price of Q4 double offset paper and coated paper is about 17% and 20% lower than that of 21h1. The demand for box board paper and dissolved pulp increased, and the pulp price increased by about 17% and 33% compared with 21h1, which is the main source of contribution to performance. 22q1 raw material wood pulp prices rose (average price of coniferous pulp / broad-leaved pulp + 16.8% and 19% month on month), supporting the price increase of cultural paper. Since February, the price increase of cultural paper has been gradually implemented, and the paper price has increased by Shenzhen Jt Automation Equipment Co.Ltd(300400) yuan / ton. The demand for superimposed box board paper and dissolved pulp is still on, and the performance is expected to improve quarter by quarter.
The gross profit margin declined and the expenses were well controlled: in 2021, the gross profit margin was 17.37%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.07pct. In terms of products, the gross profit rates of uncoated cultural paper / coated paper / kraft liner / coated base paper / dissolved pulp were 15.96%, 19.73%, 15.43%, 22.31% and 22.97% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -6.54pct, -5.68pct, -0.93pct, -4.43pct and + 26.5pct. 21q4 the gross profit margin fell by 10.5pct to 9.9% year-on-year due to the rise in the price of wood pulp raw materials (the prices of coniferous pulp and broad-leaved pulp increased by 28% and 21% year-on-year) and the rise in energy costs (taking Qinhuangdao Power Coal as an example, the average price increased by nearly 100% year-on-year and 18% month on month). In terms of expenses, the comprehensive expense rate decreased by 1.46 PCT to 6.42% year-on-year, of which the sales, management, R & D and financial expense rates changed by -0.05 PCT, -0.48 PCT, -0.22 PCT and -0.7 PCT respectively year-on-year.
Guangxi’s production capacity is gradually released, and the integrated layout of Forest Pulp and paper continues to be promoted: in the second half of 2021, 550000 tons of cultural paper, 120000 tons of household paper, 800000 tons of chemical pulp and 200000 tons of chemical mechanical pulp in Guangxi Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) phase I project are successively put into operation in the first half of 2022. It is expected that the production capacity of pulp and paper will exceed 10 million tons after the completion and operation of phase II of chemical mechanical pulp, 500000 tons of special paper, 150000 tons of household paper and 900000 tons of white cardboard, The self-sufficiency rate of raw materials will be greatly improved, the cost leading advantage will continue to strengthen, and the company’s performance is expected to continue to grow.
With the advantages of continuous expansion of raw materials and cost control, the profit rate of more than 214 companies in the industry has been improved. It is estimated that the net profit of the company in 22 and 23 years will be 3.087 billion yuan and 3.283 billion yuan, yoy + 4.39% and + 6.37%, EPS is 1.15 yuan and 1.22 yuan, and the current share price corresponding to PE is 10.4 times and 9.8 times, maintaining the investment proposal of buying.
Risk tips: raw material prices fluctuate, paper prices rise less than expected, downstream demand less than expected, and production capacity release less than expected.
