\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 298 Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) )
Event:
Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) released the first quarterly report: in 2022, Q1 achieved an operating revenue of 3.032 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, and a net profit of 313 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.3%; The net profit margin was 10.31%, down 6.33 percentage points year-on-year.
Key investment points:
Revenue growth is in line with expectations and profit pressure is high. The company’s revenue increased by 14.1% in the first quarter, which is lower than the annual revenue growth target. However, considering the early spring festival this year and the early hoarding and payment through channels after the price increase of Q4 last year, the overall performance of the revenue side is good. However, since the cost of molasses and energy has continued to rise this year, the profit side is still under pressure. The net profit margin after the price increase is not obvious. The net profit margins from Q3 last year to Q1 this year were 8.06%, 9.43% and 10.31% respectively.
The export business has recovered well, and the Chinese market is under pressure. Q1 China’s revenue was 2.167 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 13.22%, and foreign revenue was 834 million, a year-on-year increase of + 16.32%. Since Q2 last year, due to the rise of shipping costs, the growth rate of overseas revenue has dropped to single digits. With the decline of shipping costs, the growth rate of the company’s overseas revenue continued to rise. In terms of products, the revenues of Q1 yeast and deep processing business, packaging and sugar industry were 2.207 billion, 107 million and 363 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, 9.2% and 161.2% respectively. The growth rate of the main yeast industry was low, with more than 20% growth in microbial nutrition, plant nutrition and other fields. The integration of e-commerce business achieved initial results, with a year-on-year increase of more than 11%. The high growth rate of sugar industry income with low gross profit margin is also one of the reasons for profit pressure.
The cost continues to rise, and the gross profit margin is still under pressure. Gross profit margin due to the rising cost of molasses and main raw materials, the company’s Q1 gross profit margin was 26.68%. Although it was improved compared with 21.8% in the fourth quarter of last year, the gross profit margin was still 6.56 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter of last year. In addition, coupled with the slight increase in the rates of sales management and financial expenses, the difference between the gross profit margin and the three rates in the first quarter decreased by 8.07 percentage points. Among them, the financial expenses were 30.05 million yuan, an increase of 23 million yuan over the same period last year, mainly due to the increase of interest bearing liabilities (an increase of 1.07 billion year-on-year) and the increase of exchange gains and losses (at the end of March, the exchange rate of the Russian Ruble against RMB has basically fallen to the level before the Russian Ukrainian conflict, and the depreciation of the Russian Ruble has little impact). In order to cope with the tension between Russia and Ukraine, the Company re planned the logistics mode and settlement path, adjusted the export path of Russian products, exported Russian products from European ports, and transported engineering materials such as core accessories to Russia through the China Europe train. Taking Angel Hong Kong company as the business subject, the company flexibly selected multiple foreign exchange currencies, ensuring the stability and order of the production and operation of Russian companies.
Profit forecast and investment rating: in the second half of this year, Yichang and Pu’er projects are expected to be put into operation, and the company’s total fermentation capacity is expected to reach 350000 tons. Although the short-term net profit margin is under pressure, the demand for downstream yeast and derivatives of the company continues to expand, and the company’s revenue still maintains rapid growth. With the lower net profit margin base in the second half of the year, the company’s performance will show a trend of low before high. We expect the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 / 2023 / 2024 to be RMB 1.3861661/1.992 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 6% / 20% / 20%, corresponding to eps1.5% 65 / 1.97/2.37 yuan / share, pe24 / 20 / 17 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: 1) the impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations; 2) The price of raw materials rises too fast; 3) The production capacity is lower than expected; 4) Political turmoil in overseas markets; 5) Repeated overseas epidemics have hindered the project; 6) Exchange rate fluctuations, etc.
