\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 885 Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) )
Performance
On April 19, Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) issued the annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 11.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was -498 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24 million yuan. Among them, Q4 achieved an income of 2.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10%; The net profit attributable to the parent is - 450 million yuan, and the profit in the same period in 2020 is 5.92 million yuan. The performance in 2021 is slightly lower than the performance forecast range (loss of RMB 330420 million).
Analysis
Revenue improved slightly, and the annual performance is still under pressure. In 2021, the company's revenue increased by 16% year-on-year, mainly due to: (1) the peak season of spring and summer transportation disappeared, and the company's operating data still improved. In 2021, the company's RPK was + 16% year-on-year, 78% in 2019, and ask was + 15% year-on-year, 88% in 2019; (2) Compared with 2020, the company's revenue management strategy is more active. Thanks to the "off-season" from April to May and the better than expected performance of the summer games in July, the company's annual passenger kilometer revenue was + 2% year-on-year, up from 87% in 2019. The impact of the 2021q4 epidemic continued to exceed expectations, the demand was insufficient, the fleet turnover was limited, and the price of aviation kerosene increased by 92% year-on-year, resulting in Q4 performance lower than our previous expectations, and the annual performance was under pressure again.
Continue fine management and good cost control. The company supports the competitive price level with the optimal cost structure. The fleet operation implements the concept of unification and rejuvenation, and the unit operating cost is comparable to that of low-cost airlines. In 2021, the company will actively invest the wide body aircraft in the international air passenger / cargo business to improve the turnover efficiency of the fleet. In 2021, the daily utilization rate of the company's fleet was 8.35 hours, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3 hours. In 2021, the price of aviation fuel rose, the unit cost of the company decreased by 1% year-on-year, and the unit cost of fuel deduction decreased by 10%, showing good cost control ability. Among them, the change of cost structure caused by the entry of operating lease into the table may also be part of the reason.
The quantity and quality of the aviation network have increased, and the profit recovery can be expected Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) "dual brands and dual hubs" operation strategy effectively broadened the coverage of passenger groups and increased high-quality route resources. During the epidemic period, Jiuyuan Airlines was approved to batch Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) time, and the value of aviation network was further improved. At the same time, the company implements the concept of optimal cost structure, and its endogenous profitability ranks in the forefront of the industry. Recently, the epidemic situation in China has been gradually controlled. When the impact of the epidemic situation is eliminated, the prosperity of the aviation market will rise. The company's aviation network is of high quality and its profitability is expected to accelerate the repair.
Investment advice
Considering the impact of the 22q1 epidemic and the rise of oil prices, the company's EPS for 202223 will be reduced to 0.06/0.60 yuan (original 0.60/0.90 yuan), and the EPS forecast for 2024 will be increased by 0.88 yuan. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The impact of the epidemic exceeds the expected risk, exchange rate fluctuation risk, oil price rise risk, additional dilution risk and safety accidents.
