\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 13 Zhejiangtailin Bioengineering Co.Ltd(300813) )
Event: on the evening of April 18, the company released its 2021 annual report.
The performance was in line with expectations, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 increased by 31% year-on-year
The company achieved a revenue of 283 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 42%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 63.5 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31%. In Q4, the revenue in a single quarter was 101million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 21million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35%. In 2021, the company's gross profit margin on sales was 62%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.0pct, and the net profit margin on sales was 22%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.7pct. The decline in net profit margin was mainly due to the increase of R & D and R & D expenses in 2021, and the overall performance and revenue were in line with expectations.
The revenue of isolation series products increased by 153% year-on-year; Contract liabilities increased by 105% year-on-year, and future performance is guaranteed
By segment, the company's revenue of Isolation Technology Series in 2021 was nearly 94 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 153%, accounting for 33% of the total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 14.6pct. From the sales data, the sales volume of isolation technology series products reached 244 units in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 165%. We believe that the rapid growth of this sector may partly come from the delivery of projects such as cell workstations. In addition, the company's contract liabilities in 2021 were 91.56 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 105%, and its future performance is expected to continue to increase.
If covid-19 self-test is subsequently released, this field will provide NC membrane market space of about 3 billion yuan per year
NC membrane is one of the most important materials of covid-19 test kit. According to our calculation, the cost price of NC membrane in each kit is about 0.1 yuan. In the short term, taking Shanghai as an example, we expect the new space of NC membrane market to be about 40 million / month (equivalent to about 480 million / year) in 2022. In March 2022, the National Health Commission issued the notice on printing and distributing the application scheme for covid-19 virus antigen detection (Trial), which officially proposed to add antigen detection as a supplement on the basis of nucleic acid detection. From the medium and long-term perspective, the market scale of NC membrane in covid-19 self-test is expected to reach 3.4 billion / year.
After ten years of sharpening a sword, the company has developed new NC film with high performance and is expected to speed up again!
At present, qualified suppliers of NC film are mainly imported. Foreign brands mainly include Whatman (Schleicher & Schuell), sartorius, millipore, pall, thermo, India MDI, etc. domestic brands mainly include Shantou Yineng and Suzhou Tianren. Boosted by covid-19 antigen detection, the global supply and demand of NC membrane is tight, which will bring opportunities for domestic substitution. The company has devoted more than 10 years of research and development in the field of microporous filter membrane, and the technology has reached the international advanced level. Recently, it has successfully realized the small batch production of NC membrane, and the domestic substitution is further. We estimate that the company's NC membrane is expected to speed up the company's performance in 2022, and a two wheel drive situation of NC membrane and cell workstation will be formed in the future.
Profit forecast
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 160 / 2.1 / 250 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 153% / 30% / 21%, corresponding to P / E 29 / 22 / 18x. Considering the tight supply and demand of NC film under the epidemic, the gradual and large volume of the company's new NC film is expected to further boost the company's performance and adjust it to the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
1) the market competition of NC membrane deteriorates and the price fluctuates violently; 2) The development of downstream covid-19 self-test market is less than expected
