\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 110 Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) )
Key investment points
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 405 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 742193%, in line with market expectations. In 2021, the company's revenue was 4.446 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 106.32%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 405 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 742193%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 375 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 842.61%; The company previously predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 404 million yuan, and the annual report performance was basically consistent with the forecast, in line with market expectations. In 2021, the gross profit margin was 24.73%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.29pct; The net interest rate was 9.11%, with a year-on-year increase of 8.48pct. Q4's net profit attributable to the parent company was 84 million yuan, which fell month on month due to impairment, in line with market expectations.
35000 tons of copper foil will be shipped in 2021, and the business volume of copper foil will rise simultaneously. It is expected to maintain high growth in 2022. The company shipped 35000 tons in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 73%, of which the Q4 shipment in 2021 was about 9600 tons, with a month on month increase of about 4%, and the impact of power restriction was basically eliminated. We expect the company to ship about 55000 tons in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 57%. In terms of profitability, the company's net profit per ton of copper foil business in 2021 was 10800 yuan / ton, a significant increase year-on-year. If the impact of Q4 asset impairment loss is added back, we expect the net profit per ton of Q4 of copper foil business in 2021 to be about 13000 yuan / ton.
The company's capacity expansion accelerated, adding 4.5 μ The proportion of M products has increased and the leading position has emerged. The company's capacity at the end of 2021 is 43000 tons / year, and the company's effective capacity in 2022 is expected to be 55000 tons +. In addition, Hubei plans to build 50000 tons of capacity in Huangshi phase I. The company is expected to be put into operation in the second half of 2023, and the company's capacity will reach 135000 tons after completion. In terms of product structure, the company will pay 4.5% in 2021 μ M and 4 μ The proportion of M copper foil shipments has increased to 15% ~ 20%, mainly supplying Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , and we expect that the proportion will further increase to 20% + in 2022. In addition, overseas customers will have a large volume in 2022 and switch 6 in succession μ M products, customer structure, product structure further optimized.
The tight supply of lithium copper foil leads to the rise of processing fees. We expect the tight supply balance to continue in 2022. At present, the long order cycle of high-end and large-diameter cathode titanium roller equipment limits the speed of production expansion. According to our calculation, the global industrial demand will increase to 650000 tons in 2022, and the supply will continue to be in short supply. On the supply side, the new capacity of the whole industry is limited, and the capacity is in short supply. The price of copper foil processing fee has increased by 5 Tcl Technology Group Corporation(000100) 00 yuan / ton since the second half of 2021. We expect that the processing fee will remain high in 2022. With the successive delivery of old orders, the elasticity of processing fee increase in 2022 will be further reflected, the superposition of company scale effect is significant, and the leading profit elasticity will begin to be reflected.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the short-term impact of the epidemic, we lowered the net profit attributable to the parent company from 846 / 1181 million yuan to 812 / 1069 million yuan in 20222023. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 will be 1.429 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.47/0.62/0.82 yuan in 20222024, with a year-on-year increase of 100% / 32% / 34%. The current market value corresponds to 22x / 17x / 13X PE from 2022 to 2024, giving 32xpe in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 15.04 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: industry competition exceeds expectations
