\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 985 Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) )
Key investment points
Performance summary: the company issued the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 2.293 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.82%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 442 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.59%; Deduct non net profit of 276 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.43%; EPS 1.56 yuan.
The bidding price competition of fan is fierce + the cost of raw materials rises, and the profitability of flange decreases. The company's flange products are mainly used in the wind power tower industry. The bidding price of wind turbines decreased rapidly in 2021, affecting the average price of flange shipments: the average price of rolled ring forgings was 17000 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decrease of 8.31%; The average price of forged flanges and other forgings was 33200 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decrease of 4.33%. On the other hand, the rise in commodity prices and the rise in the cost of raw materials of the company have a positive impact on the cost reduction brought by production optimization, but the decline is less than the decline in the average shipping price. In 2021, the unit cost of rolling ring forgings was 11300 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decrease of 2.24%; The unit cost of forged flanges and other forgings was 25500 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decrease of 1.56%. Therefore, the profitability of the company's main business decreased, the gross profit margin of wind power tower industry decreased by 4.29pp year-on-year, and the gross profit margin of ring forging decreased by 4.14pp to 33.37%.
The 12MW offshore wind tower flange project has been basically completed, and the production capacity and large flange production capacity have been further improved. At present, the company is one of the few enterprises in the world that can produce more than 7mw and sea wind tower flange, and has mass produced 9mw sea wind tower flange. At the end of the 21st century, the capital construction of the company's fixed increase project "capacity expansion project of large finishing forgings for 50000 tons / year 12MW sea wind turbine unit" was basically completed, and the trial production was about to be completed. The flange capacity of the company will continue to increase in the next 22 years. At the same time, under the trend of large-scale fan and accelerated growth of sea breeze, it took the lead in mass production of 12MW sea breeze large-scale flange, and seized the first opportunity at the technical level.
The wind power bearing project will be put into operation soon, opening the second growth curve. The company's fixed increase project "annual output of 4000 sets of large-scale wind power bearing production line" is expected to be put into operation in June 22, and the bearing products will be expanded from yaw and pitch to main shaft bearings. The bearing development of the company will make use of the high-quality customer resources accumulated with Jinfeng, Mingyang and other main engine plants for many years, and the speed of downstream verification and mass production will be accelerated. It is expected to realize shipment and contribute income within the year, so as to further accelerate the process of bearing localization.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: from 2022, the company will benefit from the accelerated growth of sea breeze and the recovery of flange profitability; The bearing business has gradually become the second growth curve. We expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company will maintain a compound growth rate of 30.9% in the next three years and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the risk that the company's capacity investment and construction is less than expected; The risk that the development of customers is less than expected; The risk of rising raw material costs and declining profitability of the company; Risk of policy change
