\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 885 Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) )
Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) disclosed the annual report of 2021: Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) disclosed the annual report of 2021, the annual operating revenue was 11.78 billion, an increase of 14.7% year-on-year, of which the operating revenue in the fourth quarter was 2.64 billion, a decrease of 10% year-on-year; The annual net profit attributable to the parent company was -498 million, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter was -448 million.
The epidemic situation is frequently disturbed, the operating level varies greatly in the four quarters, and the annual business volume has increased. The epidemic situation was frequently disturbed in 2021, and the operating level varied greatly in the four quarters. In the fourth quarter, due to the repeated epidemic situation, the company's operation and volume decreased year-on-year, and the freight rate was relatively weak, which dragged down the annual revenue performance. Throughout the year, the company's transportation capacity increased by 15.3% year-on-year, the passenger turnover increased by 16.0% year-on-year, the passenger seat rate increased by 75.65%, increased by 0.46pct year-on-year, and the revenue per passenger kilometer was 0.4087 yuan, increased by 2.2% year-on-year. Thanks to the overall repair of annual business volume and freight rate, the company's annual revenue still recorded positive growth.
The cost of aviation fuel increased significantly, the cost was basically stable, and the performance loss continued. In 2021, the aviation fuel price rose quarter by quarter, and the company's aviation fuel cost increased significantly by 53.1%. However, thanks to the decline of depreciation, maintenance and other costs during the year and the refined management of other costs, the company's unit ask non oil cost decreased by 9.5% year-on-year, and the increase of total operating cost was controllable. The company's expense level was basically stable, but the pressure of operation in the fourth quarter dragged down the annual performance, and the slight expansion of the annual loss was basically in line with expectations.
Optimistic about the cycle elasticity after the end of the epidemic. In 2022, the policy level adheres to the dynamic zeroing strategy. There is still the possibility of repeated outbreaks in various regions. The uncertainty of civil aviation demand recovery still exists, but the industrial supply tightening has appeared and will continue. Regardless of the b737max order, the growth rate of the three airlines' passenger aircraft fleet in 2022 was only 3.4%, and the expansion rate of the company's fleet also slowed down in 2022. Prudent industrial expansion creates preconditions for cycle reversal. If the epidemic prevention policy is loosened one day, the demand will fully recover, and civil aviation will have great upward flexibility.
Risk tips: the macro-economy is falling faster than expected, the epidemic situation is repeated, the oil price and exchange rate fluctuate sharply, and safety accidents
Investment advice: maintain the "buy" rating.
Considering that the impact of repeated outbreaks in China continues to exceed our expectations and the time point of comprehensive recovery may be delayed, the profit forecast for 20222023 is lowered from 880 million and 2.68 billion to - 460 million and 1.35 billion. The profit forecast for 2024 is introduced, and the company's performance is expected to be 3.53 billion in 2024. We continue to be optimistic about the reversal of supply and demand in the industry and the sharp recovery of the company's performance after the epidemic subsides, and maintain the "buy" rating.
