\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 11 Poco Holding Co.Ltd(300811) )
The annual revenue of the company is 2.6 yoy billion yuan and 2.67 billion yuan; Net profit attributable to parent company: 120 million yuan, yoy + 12.90%; Deduct 115 million yuan of net profit not attributable to parent company, yoy + 16.55%. Among them, Q4 achieved a revenue of 204 million yuan, yoy + 28.17% and – 0.11% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 36 million yuan, yoy + 24.48% and + 12.39% month on month.
The gross profit margin affected by raw materials declined slightly, and the profitability of product structure optimization is expected to boost
At the production and marketing end, in the past 21 years, the production and sales of alloy soft magnetic particle cores of the company reached 234 / 21900 tons, yoy + 50.31 / 37.19%, mainly because the company actively expanded production to meet the boom demand of downstream optical storage new energy. At the raw material end, the average price of iron ore in 21 years is 1165 yuan / ton, yoy + 43.98%; The average price of metallic silicon is 25000 yuan / ton, yoy + 88.79%; The average price of aluminum is 18900 yuan / ton, yoy + 33.18%; At the end of product structure, alloy soft magnetic powder core is still the main force of revenue, accounting for 96.74%. Among them, the proportion of products for high value-added new energy vehicles has increased, and the proportion of products for low value-added variable frequency air conditioners has decreased. By optimizing the product structure, superimposing the effects of technological transformation and efficiency improvement and digesting some raw materials, the gross profit margin of alloy soft magnetic powder core in 21 years is 33.02%, yoy-5.04pct; The comprehensive gross profit margin is 33.85%, yoy-5.09pct. On the expense side, according to the announcement, the company expects to withdraw 127092 million yuan of equity incentive expenses in 21 years, which partially affects the net interest rate. The net interest rate in 21 years is 16.57%, yoy-4.87 PCT. After excluding the influence, the net profit per ton is 61 million yuan / ton and yoy-06 million yuan / ton. At the operating end, the net operating cash flow was -34.469 million yuan, yoy-198.57%, mainly due to the increase in the purchase price of upstream raw materials and the increase in the settlement loans of downstream customers by bill of exchange.
The pace of production expansion matches the high prosperity of the downstream, and the chip inductance and soft magnetic powder drive the second growth pole
The downstream boom continues to be confirmed, and the expansion of production matches the release of demand. In terms of downstream demand, photovoltaic: China’s new installed capacity increases & overseas inverter export resonance, the penetration rate of superimposed series inverter increases, and enjoy two wheel drive; Energy storage: China’s lithium battery energy storage shipment in 21 years is 37 GWH, yoy + 110%, and the shipment in 26 years is expected to reach 330 GWH, realizing compound high growth; New energy vehicles: we expect that in 2025, the sales penetration rate will be 25%, and the consumption of pure electric bicycles will be increased by superimposing the trend of 800V high-voltage platform. From the perspective of capacity seeding, the raised investment, transformation and upgrading projects will double the capacity, and the layout of automatic production line is expected to improve efficiency and reduce cost, match the growth of light storage new energy, and achieve internal and external resonance growth.
Chip inductance & alloy soft magnetic powder drive second growth curve. In terms of chip inductance, compared with traditional ferrite, it has the advantages of high efficiency, small volume and high current resistance. At present, the pilot test has been completed and a small batch production line is being built to open the second growth curve. In terms of alloy soft magnetic powder, water atomized alloy soft magnetic powder is used for integrated chip inductors and terminal connection to consumer electronics, which is expected to realize the company’s leap from focusing on power to covering electronics.
Investment suggestion: as the leader of China’s alloy soft magnetic particle core, stand firm in the high prosperity track of optical storage new energy, and the chip inductor is expected to open a new growth curve. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 185 / 287 / 421 million yuan respectively, corresponding to 36 / 23 / 16 times of the current stock price, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: demand fluctuation risk, project construction less than expected risk, raw material fluctuation risk, core personnel loss and technology confidentiality risk, and new business development less than expected risk
