\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 989 Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022, achieving an operating revenue of 6.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 30.9%, a month on month increase of – 8.3%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 1.0%, a month on month increase of – 0.3%, and a deduction of non net profit of 1.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 4.8% and a month on month increase of + 4.3%.
In the first quarter, the sales volume of some main products increased year-on-year, the self-sufficiency rate of coking refined coal was high, and the impact of diluting raw materials: the unit prices of polyethylene / polypropylene / coke / pure benzene Q1 were 7677.3/7488.8/2258.1/6539.3 respectively 2 yuan / ton, yoy + 8.4% / – 0.3% / + 31.5% / + 50.6%, qoq-0.4% / – 4.0% / 0.5% / 5.7%. The purchase unit price of raw coking refined coal yoy + 128% has brought about a significant rise in coke price; The sales volume of coke and olefins increased year-on-year in the first quarter. The sales volume of polyethylene / polypropylene / coke / pure benzene Q1 was 18.2/16.0/114720000 tons respectively, yoy-0.8% / 22.9% / 11.6% / – 2.1%, and the month on month change was – 11.2% / – 16.3% / – 4.6% / 9.1% respectively; The revenue contribution of coke and polyolefin is basically the same, and the Q1 revenue of polyethylene / polypropylene / coke / pure benzene is 14.0 / 12.0 / 25.9 / 130 million yuan respectively, yoy + 7.6% / 22.5% / 46.8% / 47.5%, qoq-11.5% / – 19.7% / – 4.1% / + 15.3%. Although the year-on-year increase in the prices of raw material gasification raw coal / coking clean coal / power coal is higher than that of polyolefin / coke, the self-sufficiency rate of about 60% coking clean coal brought by the company’s existing raw coal production capacity of 720000 tons dilutes the impact of upstream high prices, and the upward sales of main products jointly brought about the year-on-year increase in the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter.
The 3 million ton coal coking polygeneration project will contribute to the performance increment in 2022. Ningdong phase III and IV + Inner Mongolia project will shape the company’s long-term growth: the 3 million ton / year coal coking polygeneration project will be put into operation successively in H1 2022, and the company’s coking coal production capacity will increase from 4 million tons to 7 million tons. In addition, considering the recent coal price control measures of the national development and Reform Commission, the profitability of the coke sector will be improved in the future; The company’s 1 million tons of olefins in Ningdong phase III are promoted in an orderly manner, and the 500000 tons of coal to olefins project in Ningdong phase IV and the 4 million tons / year coal to olefins project in Inner Mongolia help the long-term growth.
The electrolytic water hydrogen production project has been continuously promoted to help the company achieve the long-term carbon neutralization goal: at the beginning of 021, the first electrolytic cell of the company began power transmission and commissioning, and the green hydrogen capacity of the first batch of electrolytic water hydrogen production equipment was 21400 tons / year; Since 2022, it is planned to increase the green hydrogen production capacity by 300 million standard cubic meters (equivalent to 2675 tons / year) every year, and the annual new production capacity can reduce the total carbon emission of chemical plants by 5%.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. The company is the leader in coal to olefin production in China. In the future, the production capacity of olefin and Coke will increase. It is estimated that the EPS of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.10 yuan, 1.60 yuan and 1.92 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 14x / 10x / 8x respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company CAGR in the next three years will be 26%, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the projects under construction are not as expected, and the prices of crude oil and coal fluctuate sharply.
