\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 110 Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021, and achieved an operating revenue of 4.446 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 106.32%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 405 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 742193%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 375 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 842.61%. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the operating revenue reached 1.21 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 52.96% and a month on month decrease of 1.47%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 84 million yuan, an increase of 284.66% year-on-year and a decrease of 30% month on month; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 79 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 55.260 billion yuan and a month on month decrease of 25.47%. Excluding the impact of impairment loss of fixed assets, the performance of 21q4 is in line with expectations.
Copper foil products are fully produced and sold, and the profitability of the products has been greatly improved. In the whole year of 021, the company produced 35600 tons of copper foil products and sold 35100 tons of copper foil products. The sales volume increased by 72.74% over the previous year, and the products were close to full production and sales. It is estimated that during the reporting period, the unit net profit of copper foil products was about 14000 yuan / ton, which achieved a turnaround and a significant increase compared with that in 2020, mainly due to the tight supply of high-quality copper foil during the reporting period and the increase in the processing fee of the company’s Copper foil products caused by the outbreak of demand. Meanwhile, during the reporting period, the company actively promoted the upgrading of product structure, 6 μ The proportion of M copper foil shipments has increased significantly, and higher product technical content corresponds to higher processing fee premium. It is estimated that the shipment of copper foil products in the fourth quarter of 2021 is about 9000 tons. After excluding the impact of asset impairment loss, the unit net profit is the same as that in the first three quarters. It is expected that the profitability of the company can maintain the level of 15000 yuan / ton in the medium and short term. If the production expansion of downstream lithium battery manufacturers accelerates, the processing fee remains expected to rise further.
Lithium copper foil maintained the attribute of high technical barrier, and the company steadily expanded its production to seize the incremental market. During the reporting period, the production capacity of Qinghai copper foil base was 35000 tons / year, the production capacity under construction was 15000 tons / year in 2021, and the planned production capacity was 15000 tons / year. After completion, the total production capacity will reach 65000 tons / year; The production capacity of Huizhou copper foil base is 8000 tons / year, and another 12000 tons / year has been debugged and mass production has begun. To sum up, after the completion of all production bases, the company’s future production capacity will reach 85000 tons / year. Lithium copper foil industry requires high equipment investment scale and has strong economies of scale. In addition, the heat resistance, oxidation resistance and surface uniformity of copper foil products constitute high technical barriers, and there is no threat of industrial price war in the medium and short term. Therefore, the company’s capacity expansion has been steadily promoted. While meeting the expanding needs of downstream customers, it can still improve the company’s market share and maintain good profitability, with strong performance certainty.
The company maintains high R & D investment, rich product structure and multi-dimensional to meet customer needs. During the reporting period, the company’s R & D expenses reached 157 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 113%, realizing innovative R & D and mass production of 4.5% μ M and 4 μ M very thin lithium copper foil, and has been produced and supplied in many varieties. The company maintains stable cooperation with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , AVIC innovation, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) and other customers, and supplies in batches to LG Chemical, Panasonic, ATL, ski and other overseas companies to continuously consolidate the existing customer structure and expand the new layout of lithium copper foil field.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the company’s EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.53 yuan, 0.68 yuan and 0.83 yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will maintain a compound growth rate of 53% in the next three years. Considering that the supply of copper foil will continue to be tight in the next two years, the profitability of the company is stable and the performance is uncertain. Meanwhile, with the large-scale release of the company’s production capacity, the scale advantage is expected to dilute the cost, further improve the net profit of the catalytic unit, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the risk of industrial policy change; The risk that the industry competition intensifies and the product processing fee decreases; Raw material price fluctuation risk.
