\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Guohua Network Security Technology Co.Ltd(000004) 01 Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) )
The company released the first quarterly report of 2022 on April 19. In the first quarter, the company achieved a revenue of 4.97 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.5% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company lost 230 million yuan, down 352.9% at the same time. The net cash flow from operating activities was a net outflow of 700 million yuan. The gross profit margin in a single quarter was 20.6%, down 5.3pct year-on-year and 6.3pct month on month.
Key points supporting rating
Operating pressure and performance decline in the first quarter: the company is the leader of northern cement. The first quarter is the off-season of northern cement. It is not surprising that the performance loss in a single quarter. In the first quarter of this year, the number of days of superimposed peak staggering shutdown increased, the coal cost soared, the real estate construction fell sharply, the epidemic disturbance and many other adverse factors, and the loss range of the company in a single quarter was higher than that in previous years.
The sales volume fell more, and the cost and price were in line with expectations: we calculated that the company's sales volume in the first quarter was about 11 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 26.7%, the price per ton was 451.6 yuan, and the cost per ton was 358.7 yuan. Compared with the fourth quarter of last year, the company's ton price / cost / gross profit decreased by 5.9 yuan, increased by 15.5 yuan and decreased by 21.3 yuan respectively; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 111.9 yuan, 106.8 yuan and 5.1 yuan respectively. Under our year-on-year caliber, the gross profit per ton of the company's products still increased to a certain extent. According to the data of the Bureau of statistics, the national cement output fell by 12.1% in the first quarter, which was the main reason for the decline of the company's performance in the first quarter, while the cost and price were basically in line with expectations.
The company's performance in the second and third quarters is expected to make up: at the industry level, the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the first quarter was bright, and infrastructure construction in many places across the country was started intensively; In the case of relatively low economic growth in the first quarter, infrastructure projects are expected to catch up with the progress in the second and third quarters, and the demand for cement is expected to be supported. At the corporate level, the corporate governance is expected to improve after the completion of the reorganization; The company plans to increase the proportion of long-term cooperative coal to 30%, and the coal cost pressure or marginal improvement; The company promises to achieve an average annual dividend of no less than 50% of the average annual distributable profit in the past three years, with a high proportion of dividends and a strong attribute of value shares.
Valuation
The company's performance is in line with expectations, and we maintain the original profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 40.77 billion yuan, 43.4 billion yuan and 45.74 billion yuan; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.17 billion yuan, 6.05 billion yuan and 6.59 billion yuan respectively; EPS is 1.95 yuan, 2.27 yuan and 2.47 yuan respectively. Maintain the company's buy rating.
Main risks of rating
Coal prices continued to rise, the growth rate of infrastructure investment was lower than expected, and real estate construction continued to be depressed
