\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 516 Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) )
Event: on the evening of April 19, 2022, Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) announced that the holding subsidiary Songci electromechanical won the bid for Yuze semiconductor's 300 million yuan single crystal furnace order. Key investment points
Won the order of Yuze 300 million yuan single crystal furnace again, and the products & services were recognized by customers: Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) holding subsidiary Songci electromechanical won the order of Yuze semiconductor 300 million yuan single crystal furnace again. Yuze semiconductor started from semiconductor silicon wafer and later transformed into photovoltaic silicon wafer. In May 2020, Yuze's annual output of 8GW silicon wafer project was settled in Yichun, of which phase I 3gw silicon wafer project was completed within 2020; Phase II 5GW silicon wafer project will be constructed in 2021. On February 19, 2022, Yuze signed a contract with Qujing Economic Development Zone to invest about 6 billion yuan to expand the production of 20GW large silicon wafers. Yuze has the capacity of battery cells. In addition, Yuze's customers include Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) and so on Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) in April 2021, the capital increase and holding of Songci electromechanical extended to the silicon chip link. After the capital increase, Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) held 51% of the shares. On October 17, 2021, Songci electromechanical won the bid for Yuze 140 million yuan (including tax) single crystal furnace order (accounting for 1 / 3 of Yuze's bidding). All the orders were delivered before the 2022 Spring Festival, and the crystal drawing quality, delivery speed and service quality were highly recognized by customers.
Single crystal furnace orders exceeded expectations and production capacity expanded actively at the same time: (1) single crystal furnace orders exceeded expectations: Yuze semiconductor expanded production by 20GW in 2022. We assume that the value of a single GW is 120 million yuan and the corresponding equipment investment is 2.4 billion yuan. Assuming that songporcelain electromechanical still accounts for 1 / 3, it corresponds to an order of 800 million yuan. After occupying a certain market share, the company will accelerate the development of automatic crystal pulling and big data crystal pulling technology to further improve the quality of crystal rods. The orders of other customers are also worth looking forward to, such as new entrants in Jingke, Jingao and silicon wafer. We expect the annual single crystal furnace orders to reach 1.4 billion yuan (higher than the previous expectation of 600 million yuan). (2) Sufficient capacity of single crystal furnace: Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) team cooperates with songporcelain Electromechanical to continuously optimize the management system, which has made songporcelain electromechanical reach the capacity of large-scale delivery. The monthly production capacity of Songci Electromechanical is about 100 sets / month in 2021 and 150 sets / month in March 2022. We expect that it will reach 180200 sets / month in June, the price of a single set is 1.2 million yuan, and the corresponding monthly output value will reach 220240 million yuan to ensure sufficient delivery capacity.
The leader of module equipment extends silicon chip & battery chip equipment and opens up the photovoltaic industry chain: in addition to the traditional main business module equipment and high growth silicon chip equipment business, Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) also realizes the multi product layout on the battery chip equipment through three platforms. (1) Screen printing machine: the holding subsidiary Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) XURUI ( Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) holding 82%) is making battery chip equipment such as screen printing machine. At present, it has just begun to make a test line and will adopt the straight-line method, which has an advantage under the trend of slicing. (2) ALD equipment: Wuxi Songyu ( Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) holding 8%) is mainly engaged in the R & D and sales of ALD (atomic layer deposition) equipment. (3) Annealing impurity absorption furnace & LPCVD: Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) parent company's annealing impurity absorption furnace / hydrogen passivation furnace has become the core component of Tongwei and other companies' equipment, which can improve the photoelectric conversion efficiency; LPCVD is currently in the preliminary investigation stage Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) is a rare equipment company in the photovoltaic industry with layout in silicon wafer, cell chip and module links. The purpose is to open up the photovoltaic manufacturing industry chain. When modeling big data, the more comprehensive the data is, the better the analysis of the whole process manufacturing effect.
Profit forecast and investment rating: with the continuous prosperity of photovoltaic module equipment + smooth expansion of new fields, we maintain the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 550 / 79 / 1.1 billion respectively, corresponding to 39 / 27 / 19 times of the current share price PE, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the R & D progress is less than expected, and the downstream expansion is less than the market expectation.
