\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 57 Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) )
Core view: sensitive skin care is the leading domestic product, with leading profitability in the industry. The company's core brand "Winona" focuses on sensitive muscle repair, with a deep medical background. From 2017 to 2021, the CAGR of the company's revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 49.8% and 54.0% respectively, with sustained and rapid growth; The gross profit margin and net profit margin of the company are about 80% and 20% respectively, and the profitability is leading in the industry; Sustained R & D investment and high sales expense rate to consolidate the company's R & D advantages and brand influence.
The skin care track at the dermatology level is "high growth rate + low penetration", and the company has high growth. Policy empowerment and scale growth lead the world, and the prosperity of China's cosmetics industry is high. With the increasing number of sensitive muscle people in China, the market scale of Chinese dermatology grade skin care products increased from 6.144 billion yuan in 2015 to 19.151 billion yuan in 2020, with CAGR of 25.5%, 19.5pct higher than the global growth rate, but the penetration rate is still several times lower than that of European and American countries. According to the penetration rate of dermatological grade skin care products in the overall skin care products, it is estimated that the market scale of dermatological grade skin care products in China is expected to be close to 80 billion yuan by 2030. From the perspective of competition pattern, China's skin care industry is highly concentrated, and local brands such as Winona are more growth oriented. "Multi category + multi brand + Omni channel" to create multi-dimensional competitive advantage. 1) Product side: take the core product Shumin special cream to stabilize the basic income and accelerate the expansion of new products. In 2021, the new products, such as sun cream, freeze dried facial mask and so on, were all successfully exploded. Sunscreen became the second largest selling product after special cream. 2) Brand side: relying on the advantages of the main brand, develop high-end anti-aging and infant care track to create the second growth curve of Winona baby; Tiktok Kwai: 3) channel side: online and offline all channels collaborative development, online, the company's new channel such as jitter, fast hand, and so on, using high-frequency self seeding mode to achieve new revenue growth, 2021, tiktok eleven double the number one self ranking. Offline, the improvement of the chain rate of pharmacies will give greater growth impetus to OTC channels, and the full settlement of Watson has filled the gap of its new retail channels.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: as the leader of sensitive skin care, the company continues to deepen the strategy of "multi brand + multi category + Omni channel", actively expand new products, create new popular models, and grasp the development dividends of emerging channels. The new brand Winona baby and high-end anti-aging brands are ready to help build a second growth curve. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.22/16.7/2.27 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 2.9/3.9/5.4 yuan / share and PE of 59 / 43 / 32 times. Maintain the company's "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The market demand for new products is less than expected; The epidemic situation affects Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) channel sales; Market competition intensifies.
