\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 51 Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) )
Event: Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) released the first quarterly report of 2022, realizing a revenue of 830 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 180 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 50%.
Key investment points
The performance exceeded expectations, and the profit growth rate under the scale effect was higher than the revenue growth rate: 2022q1 Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) revenue was 830 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32% and a month on month increase of – 8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 180 million yuan, up + 50% year on year and – 4% month on month; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 170 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 43% and a month on month increase of – 2%. Under the scale effect, the year-on-year growth rate of profit is higher than that of revenue.
The profitability has rebounded to the best level in history (2018), and the increase in the proportion of hjt revenue in the future will further improve the profitability: the gross profit margin of sales in 2022q1 is 40.6%, year-on-year + 2.3pct, month on month + 2.5pct; The net profit margin of sales was 20.9%, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.4pct and a month on month increase of + 0.99pct. Both gross profit margin and net profit margin rose to the best level in history (gross profit margin was about 40% and net profit margin was about 22% in 2018), mainly due to the cost reduction of R & D Optimization & supply chain optimization. We believe that at present, the orders confirmed by Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) in the first quarter are mainly perc, and the revenue of hjt equipment in the first quarter has not been confirmed. We expect that in the future, with the continuous increase of the proportion of hjt revenue and the large-scale volume of semiconductor equipment, the profitability of the company will continue to improve, and the constant strength logic of the equipment dragon and the strong will continue to be verified. Compared with the same period, the expense rate during 2022q1 is stable. The expense rate during 2022q1 is 17.5%, year-on-year + 1PCT, month on month -6.3pct, of which the management expense rate (including R & D) is 15.7%, year-on-year + 2.8cpt, month on month -0.5pct; The sales expense ratio was 4.8%, with a year-on-year ratio of -0.1pct and a month on month ratio of -3.5pct; The financial expense ratio was – 2.9%, year-on-year -1.7pct and month on month -2.3pct.
Contract liabilities & inventories increased significantly, with strong certainty of performance growth: by the end of 2022q1, contract liabilities were 2.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 34%; The inventory was 3.27 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 29%; The net cash flow from operating activities in 2022q1 was 29 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 73%, mainly due to the company’s sufficient orders to reduce the impact of the epidemic and prepare goods in advance. On April 17, 2022, it was announced that Reliance Industries (REC’s parent company) planned to purchase 8 pieces of hjt whole line equipment from Singapore Maiwei, with a capacity of 600mw/ piece, totaling 4.8gw. The total purchase amount exceeded 50% of the company’s revenue in 2021 (the revenue in 2021 was 3.1 billion yuan, and the order was 1.6-3.1 billion yuan). In the next 3-5 years, Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) as the leader of hjt’s whole line equipment, will fully benefit from hjt’s expansion of production, sufficient orders and high growth of performance.
The cost reduction and efficiency increase of hjt is accelerated. Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) as the leader of hjt whole line equipment, it has high order flexibility: we believe that the cost reduction and efficiency increase of hjt will be accelerated in 2022, and the expectation of 20-30gw production expansion of the whole industry in 2022 will remain unchanged. The production expansion of the whole industry will break out in 2023 & major mainstream factories will start to expand production on a large scale. As the leader of hjt whole line equipment, the company has the greatest flexibility. (1) Silver paste: reducing silver consumption helps the cost of hjt battery drop rapidly. It is expected that the low-temperature silver clad copper technology will be mass produced within this year, and the domestic silver clad copper paste will shine. (2) Silicon wafer: slicing & the cost reduction of n-type silicon wafer is expected to become the main direction of cost reduction of hjt in the future. (3) Target: azo target helps hjt reduce costs. Sufficient indium reserves will not restrict the development of the industry. (4) Microcrystalline efficiency improvement: microcrystalline equipment is mature, and the localization of parts and components & efficiency improvement is at the right time.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company is the leader of hjt whole line equipment with first mover advantage, benefiting from the accelerated production expansion of hjt battery, and opening up growth space for the long-term layout of Pan semiconductor field. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 919 / 1399 / 2169 million, corresponding to 60 / 40 / 26 times of the current share price PE, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the R & D of new products is less than expected, and the expansion of hjt equipment is less than expected.
