\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 885 Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) )
Summary of performance: in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 11.8 billion yuan (year-on-year + 16%), corresponding to a loss of 500 million yuan of net profit attributable to the parent (a loss of 470 million yuan in the same period of 20 years), deducting a loss of 670 million yuan of net profit not attributable to the parent (a loss of 670 million yuan in the same period of 20 years), which was basically the same as that of last year. Quarterly, q1~q4 revenue is RMB 2.5 billion, RMB 3.6 billion, RMB 3.1 billion and RMB 2.6 billion respectively, and the corresponding net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB -280million, RMB 340million, -160million and RMB -600million respectively.
The loss of foreign exchange deduction core profit was about 720 million yuan. In 2021, the RMB appreciated by 6.91%, and the net exchange gain of the company was 220 million yuan (150 million yuan in the same period of 20 years). In 2021, the exchange rate sensitivity of the company was RMB 90 million.
In terms of operation data, RPK was + 16% year-on-year, with a recovery rate of 80% compared with 19 years. Among them, China’s RPK increased by 19% year-on-year, 93% in the same period of 19 years. Ask + 15% year-on-year, with a recovery rate of 88% compared with 19 years. In terms of seating rate, the annual seating rate in 21 years was 75.7% (year-on-year + 0.46pp). In terms of fleet introduction, it is planned to net introduce 7 aircraft in 2022, including 88 Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) aircrafts and 27 Jiuyuan aircrafts.
The customer revenue picked up and the unit cost decreased. In 2021, the revenue per passenger kilometer was 0.41 yuan (year-on-year + 2.2%), of which the revenue of China line was 0.38 yuan (year-on-year + 9.4%), the revenue of regional line was 0.56 yuan (year-on-year – 48.5%), and the revenue of international line was 2.9 yuan (year-on-year + 78.9%). The fuel cost of the company is RMB 2340.9% year-on-year (the unit cost of the company is RMB – 3240.9% year-on-year) (the year-on-year cost of fuel is RMB – 3240.1%). In 2021, the oil distribution center rose by 70%, and the crude oil price sharply put great pressure on the cost side of airlines.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. During the “14th five year plan” period, the growth rate of aircraft fleet size in the aviation industry is expected to be less than 6%, and the compound growth rate of demand in the same period is 5.9%. Civil aviation will usher in the improvement of supply and demand structure in the medium term. Affected by the epidemic in China and the world, we have lowered our profit forecast for 2022 and beyond. It is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be – 2, 4 and 1.7 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 67 and 17 times of PE in 23 and 24 years respectively. However, for the company, the growth rate of aircraft fleet / time resources during the epidemic can still exceed the industry average. The strategy of high-frequency matching of high-quality segments and high-quality time of high-capacity passenger aircraft can better adapt to the changes of periodic travel demand after the epidemic and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: China’s epidemic situation is repeated, the recovery of travel demand is blocked, the macro-economy is down, and the cost of crude oil is rising.
