\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 008 Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) )
Key investment points
The retail business of independent brands increased investment, and the growth rate of 21q4 led the industry, accounting for 70%
(1) independent brand retail (including Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) , M & D and xiatu) achieved revenue of 5.174 billion (+ 64.78%) in 21 years, accounting for 66% (56% in 20 years), of which 21q4 revenue of 1.903 billion (+ 38.91%), accounting for 70%. It mainly benefited from the continuous increase of brand marketing and channel investment of independent brands. At the same time, the company launched the star Yang Yang as the brand spokesperson in October 21 to seize the mind of the main group of house buyers in advance, and the brand influence continued to improve.
(2) the independent brand project ( Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ) had a revenue of 470 million (+ 4.40%) in 21 years, of which the revenue of 21q4 was 149 million (+ 11%). The slowdown in the growth of the project business was mainly due to the strategic adjustment and business contraction of the hotel wooden furniture decoration business, but the hotel mattress business still had a good growth.
(3) the 21-year revenue of agent processing business was 2.128 billion (+ 20.63%), of which the revenue of 21q4 was 677 million (+ 21.71%), accounting for 27%. Among them, the export ODM reached 1.165 billion (+ 46.41%), benefiting from the strong overseas demand and forming the main growth pull. In 21 years, the company's agent processing business was affected by the rise in the price of raw materials and the delay in raising the price. Its profitability was weak (the gross profit margin was only 9%). In 22 years, the company focused on improving the profit margin.
Offline stores are opening at a high speed, the same store is growing at a high speed, and e-commerce continues to lead. Keshang sofa is getting better and better
(1) offline channels: the revenue of 21 years is 4.076 billion (+ 65%), of which Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) 3.307 billion (+ 77%) and M & D + xiatu 650 million (+ 23%). Dealers have strong profitability and strong willingness to open stores. Compared with the beginning of the year, the number of stores opened in 21 years has increased by 852, reaching 4495 (199 newly opened in 21q4 alone), including 60 Zhejiang Linuo Flow Control Technology Co.Ltd(300838) 99 (+ 759, including 1062 in Ximian and 262 newly added), and 596 in M & D (+ 93). It is worth noting that in the past 21 years, we estimated that the revenue of Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) retail single store of the company was 1.13 million (+ 40%), on the one hand, the increase came from the increase of inbound passenger flow under the investment of strong brand marketing, and at the same time, the increase of customer single value (bed: bedstead: sofa: the joint rate of supporting products) was also obvious. The customer unit price of bedding in 20 years was about 12000 yuan, increased to 14000 yuan in 21 years, and the target in 22 years would be increased to more than 16000 yuan. At the same time, in 22 years, the company maintained the plan of 8001000 new stores, and continued to promote the laying of new channels such as home decoration and home appliance stores.
(2) e-commerce channels: the revenue of 21 years was 1.098 billion (year-on-year + 63%), of which 21q4 achieved revenue of about 400 million (+ 54%). In 21 years, the total sales of 618 network reached 362 million yuan (+ 145%), and the total sales of double 11 network exceeded 800 million, ranking first for many years.
(3) high increase in sales of Keshang sofa series: the sofa business achieved a revenue of 1.054 billion (+ 47%), accounting for 13%, of which M & D + xiatu is estimated to achieve a revenue of 650 million and Keshang sofa is expected to be about 200 million (the rest is OEM sofa). Keshang sofa is self-developed by the company, the price is close to the people, shares the mattress passenger flow and contributes to the new growth drive.
The proportion of retail business increased, driving the gross profit margin and increasing the investment in advertising and marketing expenses
(1) gross profit margin: the gross profit margin in the 21st year was 32.00% (- 1.76 PCT). Considering the adjustment of the cost of main business according to the transportation cost, the gross profit margin of the restored standard actually increased by 1.49 PCT, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of the company's own brand retail business with high gross profit. The gross profit margin of 21q4 is 33.22%. If the freight adjustment caliber is restored, it is expected to be improved. In the past 21 years, the retail end of the company successfully transmitted the pressure of raw material price increase through price increase, and the OEM business had a certain impact on the gross profit margin due to the lag of price increase.
(2) expense rate: during the 21-year period, the expense rate was 22.43% (-2.01pct), of which the sales expense rate was 15.36% (-0.77 PCT). The actual year-on-year increase in the adjustment caliber of reduction freight was 2.66 PCT, which was mainly due to the company's increase in advertising and enabling Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) all channel sales; The rate of management + R & D expenses is 6.40% (-0.63 PCT), of which the rate of R & D expenses is 2.35% (+ 0.13 PCT). We will increase the development of new product series; The financial expense rate is 0.67% (-0.61pct). During 21q4, the expense rate was 22.14% (+ 0.55pct), of which the sales expense rate was 15.65% (+ 0.43pct), the management + R & D expense rate was 6.00% (- 0.54 PCT), and the financial expense rate was 0.49% (+ 0.66pct).
(3) cash flow: the advance collection on the account + contract liabilities in 21 years was 200 million yuan (- 4.31%); Accounts receivable + Notes totaled 1.209 billion (+ 41.57%); The net operating cash flow in 21 years was 704 million (740 million in 20 years), of which the net operating cash flow in 21q4 was 503 million (605 million in 20q4), mainly due to the large cash outflow from brand expenses, factory rent, raw material preparation and so on.
(4) impairment loss: the credit impairment loss was 59.84 million yuan in 21 years and 38.71 million yuan in 20 years, mainly due to the excessive provision for impairment of Evergrande bills.
Profit forecast and valuation
The mattress industry has large capacity, fast growth and excellent pattern. The main business of Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) retail has excellent growth quality, accelerated share and continued to be recommended. We expect the revenue of 22-24 years to be 9.733 billion (+ 25.23%), 12.238 billion (+ 25.73%), 15.312 billion (+ 25.12%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 718 million (+ 28.52%), 938 million (+ 30.68%), 1.204 billion (+ 28.33%), corresponding to PE of 14.59x, 11.17x and 8.7x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The price of raw materials has risen sharply and the industry competition has intensified
