\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 434 Zhejiang Wanliyang Co.Ltd(002434) )
Event: the company released the results. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 5.475 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 9.73%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was -747 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 221.09%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was -843 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 288.26%; Among them, 21q4 achieved a revenue of 1.145 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 40.57%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was -1.258 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of -126499%.
Revenue side: in 2021, the company's sales of passenger cars and commercial vehicle transmissions were 735000 and 589000 units respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 7.26% and - 21.43% respectively. We believe that it is mainly affected by the phased reduction of the company's orders caused by the insufficient supply of automobile chips and the decline of the overall market outlook of commercial vehicles; Profit side: the first loss of the company since its listing in 2010 is mainly due to the sharp rise in the cost of raw materials. At the same time, the company has accrued a goodwill impairment of 940 million yuan, which has a great impact on the profit side; Expense side: in 2021, the company's sales expense was 120 million, a year-on-year increase of - 8.07%; The management fee was 136 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.10%; The R & D cost was 350 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.35%. We believe that the increase is mainly due to the vigorous recruitment of R & D talents. After 21 years of provision for goodwill impairment, the company is expected to carry light equipment and greatly improve its overall operation with the landing of subsequent hybrid DHT projects one by one and the rapid expansion of energy storage business.
Traditional automobile main industry: actively layout hybrid DHT, independent transmission leader, and embrace the new energy era
According to the energy saving and new energy vehicle technology roadmap 2.0, the proportion of new hybrid vehicles in traditional energy passenger vehicles will reach 50%, 75% and 100% in 2025, 2030 and 2035 respectively, while the penetration rate of ordinary hybrid passenger vehicles in China will only be 4.01% in March 2022, with significant growth space. On the basis of the stable contribution of the original CVT business, the company has actively arranged the DHT hybrid system. At present, the company has completed the sample vehicle test, driving evaluation, fuel consumption and power performance test of three customers. The performance of fuel saving rate and power performance have been recognized by customers, and the fixed-point mass production is about to be launched. In addition to hybrid, the company also focuses on the transmission and drive system business of new energy vehicles, including EV reducer, ed "two in one", EDS "three in one", ECVT electric drive system and other products. In terms of new energy commercial vehicles, we will rapidly promote the development of ETM pure electric drive system and 2-gear / 3-gear AMT transmission in line with China's commercial vehicle market, and actively embrace the arrival of the new energy era.
New energy storage business: a pioneer in the new energy storage auxiliary market, and a number of high-quality projects are in hand
The company has been engaged in flexible power regulation business for many years, and has successively put into operation four power generation side energy storage power stations in Guangdong, Gansu and other provinces, with a total installed capacity of about 40mW. At present, the total installed capacity of the energy storage power station to be invested and constructed under the signed agreement is about 1000MW, of which the installed capacity of Zhaoqing City Project in Guangdong Province is about 100MW, Yiwu City Project in Zhejiang Province is about 300MW, Haiyan County project in Zhejiang Province is about 300MW, and Jiangshan City Project in Zhejiang Province is about 300MW. There are plenty of orders in hand.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Considering the rise of raw materials and the impact of the epidemic on the company's short-term performance, we lowered our profit forecast. It is expected that the company will achieve a revenue of 6.99/7.98 billion yuan (the previous value of 8.70/10.49 billion yuan) and a net profit of 610 / 730 million yuan (the previous value of 9.2/1.16 billion yuan), corresponding to EPS of 0.45/0.54 yuan and PE of 16.4/13.7 times respectively in 22 / 23 years, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: risk of supply and price fluctuation of main raw materials and spare parts; Market competition risk
