\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 67 Shengyuan Environmental Protection Co.Ltd(300867) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the company’s revenue was 2.296 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 122.08%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 472million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.27%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 413 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 37.33%.
Comments:
The operation of waste incineration power generation projects has increased significantly, and the performance has been greatly improved. In 2021, six waste incineration power generation projects were put into operation, with a new waste treatment scale of 4950 tons / day. After the above projects are put into operation, the scale of the company’s power plant units has increased significantly. According to the announcement of the company, as of 2021, the scale of power plant units operated by the company has reached 309mw, an increase of 72.63% compared with 179mw in 2020. With the growth of the scale of power plant units, the amount of garbage entering the plant, power generation, on grid power and waste incineration revenue of the company also increased significantly. In 2021, the company has operated a waste incineration power plant, which received 4.8458 million tons of waste in the whole year, with a year-on-year increase of 16.81%; The annual cumulative power generation was 1.661 billion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 31.06%; The on grid power consumption was 1.431 billion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 31.29%; The revenue from waste incineration was 1.163 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.99%. In addition, the company’s investment income in 2021 was 88 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 282.61%, which also promoted the growth of the company’s performance to a certain extent.
We will continue to deepen the waste incineration power generation industry and expand the new path of “incineration +” development. Waste incineration power generation is still the direction of the company’s continuous development in the future. The company will further expand the capacity of domestic waste incineration power generation by expanding new projects and acquiring stock projects; At the same time, promote the overall treatment of waste areas, expand waste sources, ensure waste supply, and promote the overall improvement of business level and profitability. In addition, the company will also make full use of the synergy of the completed waste power generation projects, take into account the development of new businesses in the field of collaborative treatment of general industrial solid waste, kitchen waste, kitchen waste and sludge, and promote the vertical and horizontal integration strategy of solid waste. At present, the company has reserved certain waste incineration power generation projects. According to the company’s announcement, as of 2021, the treatment scale of the company’s waste incineration power generation project under construction is 2000 tons / day, the planned installed capacity of the project under construction is 30MW, and the planned installed capacity of the approved project is 160mw. In the future, with the gradual commissioning of projects under construction and approved, as well as the increment brought by the company’s potential M & A projects, it is expected that the company’s waste incineration power generation business will maintain a steady development trend and contribute to the basic performance of the company.
New energy development efforts continued to increase, creating a second growth curve. In 2021, the company accelerated the layout of new energy projects, and synchronized the development of photovoltaic, wind power, hydrogen energy and other fields. Looking forward to the future, the company will actively promote the implementation of offshore wind power and photovoltaic power generation projects in Fujian Province by relying on the advantages of customer resources and project operation resources accumulated in Fujian. In terms of photovoltaic power generation, as of 2021, the company has six distributed photovoltaic projects under construction and operation, with a total installed capacity of 459460kw. According to the average annual sunshine hours of 1300 hours, the total annual power generation is about 5.973 million kwh, which can effectively reduce the auxiliary power consumption rate and operation cost. In 2022, the company will continue to promote the investment and construction of seven distributed photovoltaic projects in an orderly manner. In terms of offshore wind power, in 2022, the company will actively strive for the implementation of the first offshore wind power project in Fujian. In addition, the company will also make efforts in the field of hydrogen energy, focusing on technology R & D and equipment manufacturing such as green hydrogen preparation, hydrogen purification, technology iteration of solid hydrogen storage materials and hydrogen transportation, so as to gradually form its own technical advantages.
Maintain the “buy” rating: the company’s waste incineration power generation business is expected to develop steadily, accelerate the layout of new energy field, carry out the construction of photovoltaic, offshore wind power and other projects, and actively expand the development of hydrogen energy technology and equipment to help the company’s performance grow continuously. Due to the uncertainty of the company’s offshore wind power project, the impact of the future offshore wind power project operation is not considered temporarily. It is estimated that the company’s operating revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.305 billion yuan, 2.515 billion yuan and 2.635 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 0.39%, 9.13% and 4.75% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 626 million, RMB 765 million and RMB 877 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 32.69%, 22.28% and 14.66% respectively; EPS is 2.30, 2.82 and 3.23 respectively, and the corresponding PE is 10.65, 8.71 and 7.60 times respectively.
Risk tips: the risk of unstable domestic waste supply and calorific value, the risk of on grid electricity price subsidy policy, the risk of intensified market competition, the risk of market demand falling short of expectations, and the risk of new production capacity falling short of expectations.
