\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 456 Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) )
Core conclusion
Performance: in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 4.063 billion yuan, + 53.48%; Net profit attributable to parent company: 634 million yuan, + 66.56%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 573 million yuan, + 77.86%. In the first quarter of 2022, the company realized an operating revenue of 1.374 billion yuan, + 60.46%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 208 million yuan, + 120.13%, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company is 196 million yuan, + 102.28%. 2022q1 single quarter performance hit another record high, exceeding market expectations.
Cdmo business grew rapidly and the proportion of early projects increased. In 2021, the company’s cdmo business revenue reached 2.311 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.67%, and the cdmo business revenue accounted for 57%. The company’s customer pool has expanded rapidly. At present, the number of customers in the world has reached more than 800. It has carried out in-depth cooperation with international well-known pharmaceutical enterprises Novartis, Roche, shuotang, Gilead and the first three companies. In terms of project stage, the company has 582 phase I-II projects (+ 33%), 49 clinical phase III projects (+ 23%), and 20 commercialization projects (+ 25%). The rapid expansion of early projects provides impetus for the long-term development of the company’s cdmo business.
Jiangsu Ruike resumed production, solved the bottleneck of production capacity, and the API business grew steadily. In 2021, the company’s API business realized a revenue of 1.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.30%. The company’s API business focuses on anti infection, central nervous system, non steroids and hypoglycemic drugs. In 2021, hypoglycemic products helped customers’ preparations to be listed in Europe, and the revenue of hypoglycemic products increased by 57.69% year-on-year. At present, the company has 17 generic drug projects in different stages. It is estimated that the API sector of the company is expected to continue a steady growth of about 20% in 2022.
Profit forecast and rating: it is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 5.456/71.20/8.696 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 34% / 31% / 22%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 914 / 1261 / 1606 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 44% / 38% / 27%, corresponding to 42 / 31 / 24 times of PE respectively. The company’s cdmo business customers expanded rapidly, with strong order certainty. The characteristic API business grew steadily and maintained the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: large orders are lost, customer expansion is slow, and R & D investment of pharmaceutical enterprises slows down
