\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 154 Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) )
Key investment points
Leading brand of business men's wear, with outstanding performance after the epidemic in 2020. The company is the leader of business men's wear in China. After adjustment, it has ushered in growth. After the epidemic in 2020, it has recovered earlier and stronger in the industry. The recovery trend will continue in 2021, and the income and net profit attributable to the parent will increase by 17.52% and 26.70% respectively. The company owns Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) , hazzys, BAONIAO and other brands (Soro, kemiche, lefeiye, TB, Henri Gran, etc.). In 2021, the total revenue of Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) + hazzy + BAONIAO accounted for 90.16%, contributing to the main source of revenue. Among them, hazzys maintained sustained and rapid growth, Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) main brand accelerated growth in 2021, and BAONIAO maintained steady growth.
Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) : the growth rate was accelerated in 2021, and the franchise stores made a great contribution to the efficiency improvement. The main brand is positioned as medium and high-end business men's wear, with 796 stores in 2021 (567 franchisees + 229 direct sales), with an income of 1.612 billion yuan / yoy + 26.26% / accounting for 37%, and the growth rate is significantly higher than that in the previous two years. Among them, online / direct / franchise increased by about 20% year-on-year / single digit / 30% - 40% respectively. The high growth of franchise channels mainly contributed to the growth of store efficiency. In the future, with the upgrading of brand image, the rejuvenation of products and the continuation of the good trend of e-commerce + customization business, it is expected to maintain a rapid growth trend.
Hazys: medium and high-grade British style clothing, with excellent performance in recent years. Hazzys is positioned as a medium and high-end British style. After being introduced into the Chinese market through agents in 2011, it has been successfully localized and has maintained a sustained and rapid growth since 2017. In 2021, its revenue was 1.45 billion yuan / yoy + 17.83% / accounting for 34%, of which online / offline accounted for 30% / 70%. In 2021, 401 stores (301 Direct stores + 100 franchisees) increased slightly, and the improvement of store efficiency contributed to the main growth offline. We expect that there will be room for improvement in store opening and store efficiency in the future: 1) at present, it is mainly directly operated and plans to increase the proportion of franchisees in the future. There is still a large room for improvement in the number of stores compared with the same industry; 2) In 2021, the average store area will be 100120 square meters and the store efficiency will be 3 million yuan +. In the future, it is expected to open up 200 square meters + large stores and further improve the performance of single stores.
BAONIAO: a group buying brand of professional clothing, with scale advantages contributing to steady growth. BAONIAO positioned the group purchase of high-end customized professional wear, benefiting from the increasingly standardized trend of centralized procurement and bidding of professional wear in China. In recent years, the proportion of large-scale orders has increased, and the revenue grew steadily and the compound growth rate was 18.8% from 2017 to 2021. In 2021, BAONIAO's revenue was 837 million yuan / yoy + 6.6% / accounting for 19%. In 2020, due to the high base caused by the acceptance of government orders for epidemic prevention materials, excluding the impact, the revenue increased by nearly 20% in 2021.
After adjusting the profit level and profit level of China's men's clothing company in 2017, it is expected that the company will steadily improve the profit level and net profit of China's men's clothing company. In 2020, the recovery after the epidemic was ahead of the industry. In 2021, hazys maintained rapid growth, accelerated growth of main brands and excellent performance. Looking forward to the future, the good growth trend of the three major brands is expected to continue. At the same time, the company takes "growth priority and profit orientation" as the principle, strengthens performance incentive, and is expected to further optimize cost management and profitability. Taking into account the interference caused by the epidemic since March 2022, we expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be + 21.7% / + 22.4% / + 17.0% year-on-year respectively, and the EPS will be 0.39/0.47/0.55 yuan / share, corresponding to pe10x / 8x / 7X. The "buy" rating will be given for the first time.
Risk tips: epidemic spread, weak economy, long cultivation period of small brands, etc.
