\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 337 Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) )
Events
On the evening of April 18, 2022, the company released its annual report for 2021: the company’s revenue in 2021 was 1.47 billion yuan, an increase of 35.14% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 262 million yuan, an increase of 22.34% at the same time; Deduct non net profit of 243 million yuan, an increase of 22.73% at the same time.
Key investment points
The performance is in line with expectations, and the rising cost erodes profits
The company’s revenue in 2021 was 1.47 billion yuan, an increase of 35.14% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 262 million yuan, an increase of 22.34% at the same time; Deduct non net profit of 243 million yuan, an increase of 22.73% at the same time; It is basically consistent with the previously announced 2021 performance express. Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 414 million yuan, an increase of 14.86% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 68 million yuan, with a decrease of 4.35%; Deduct non net profit of 63 million yuan, with a decrease of 9.36%. The gross profit margin in 2021 is 35.88% (with a decrease of 1.3pct), of which 2021q4 is 33.58% (with a decrease of 3.6pct); The net interest rate in 2021 is 17.86% (with a decrease of 1.9pct), of which 2021q4 is 16.29% (with a decrease of 3.3pct). In 2021, the advance payment was 167 million yuan, an increase of 272% at the same time, which was due to the increase of the company’s advance payment for milk powder at the end of the period. At the end of 2021, the contract liabilities were 85 million yuan, a decrease of 17 million yuan month on month and an increase of 16 million yuan at the same time.
We believe that the performance is in line with expectations for the following reasons: 1) relying on sweet milk beverage products, the company continues to enrich the product structure. It is expected that the sales of new products (mainly fruit and vegetable drinks, milk coffee and coconut milk) will be about 100 million in 2021, increasing the performance; 2) Deeply cultivate the key core market and gradually radiate the surrounding regional markets, accelerate the development of the national market and channel construction, and establish a three-dimensional, stable and unobstructed sales network and service system; 3) The year-on-year decline in profits in the fourth quarter was due to the rise in the price of large packages of raw materials.
The overall volume and price rose simultaneously, with high growth in emerging markets
In terms of products, the main business revenue in 2021 was 1.465 billion yuan, an increase of 35.86% at the same time; The revenue of milk beverage was 1.422 billion yuan, an increase of 36.64% at the same time; Other revenue was 37 million yuan, an increase of 11.75%.
In terms of volume and price, in 2021, the main business revenue was 1.465 billion yuan (+ 35.9%), the total sales volume was 285200 tons (+ 34.9%), and the corresponding ton price was 5100 yuan / ton (+ 0.7%); The revenue of milk beverage is 1.427 billion yuan (+ 36.6%), the sales volume is 277300 tons (+ 34.5%), and the corresponding ton price is 5100 yuan / ton (+ 0.8%); The revenue of milk flavor beverage is 20 million yuan (+ 174%), the sales volume is 4300 tons (+ 155%), and the corresponding ton price is 47 million yuan (+ 9%); The revenue of compound protein was 05 million yuan (+ 12%), and the sales volume was 1400 tons (+ 15%).
In terms of channels, the revenue of distribution channels in 2021 was 1.43 billion yuan, an increase of 36.45% at the same time; The revenue from direct sales channels was 35 million yuan, an increase of 15.48% at the same time.
Regionally, the revenue of East China in 2021 was 782 million yuan, an increase of 28% at the same time, accounting for 53%; Central China was 287 million yuan, an increase of 40% at the same time, accounting for 20%; The southwest was 245 million yuan, an increase of 39% at the same time, accounting for 17%; 27 million yuan in North China, an increase of 111%; 50 million yuan in South China, an increase of 180% at the same time; 14 million yuan in Northeast China, an increase of 145% at the same time; The northwest reached 09 million yuan, an increase of 226% at the same time; Online 51 million yuan, an increase of 12%.
Profit forecast
At present, the company accelerates brand upgrading, improves sales channels and strengthens the construction of marketing team; It has established a sales network in more than 30 provinces across the country, gradually explored and cultivated the market by deeply cultivating the key core market and gradually radiating the “regional distribution model” of driving the surrounding regional market, and strive to become a national brand in 3-5 years through stepped market development. We are optimistic about the company’s continued large-scale new products and national expansion. According to the performance express, the EPS is expected to be 1.46/1.75/2.10 yuan from 2022 to 2024, and the current share price corresponding to PE is 24 / 20 / 17 times respectively, maintaining the “recommended” investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risk, epidemic drag on consumption, new product promotion is less than expected, raw materials rise sharply, production capacity is less than expected, single product risk, etc.
