\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 594 Byd Company Limited(002594) )
Core view:
On April 18, the company released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022. In 2022q1, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be 650950 million yuan, a sharp increase of 174% – 300% over the same period last year.
Our analysis and judgment
(I) Q1 new energy vehicles account for about 25% of the market. Explosive growth in sales volume drives beautiful performance
In March, the company’s auto wholesale sales volume was 104000, a year-on-year increase of + 157.6%, which was much higher than the growth rate of the industry, with a market share of 22.86%. In the first quarter, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 1189600, a year-on-year increase of + 145%, of which the cumulative sales volume of the company’s new energy vehicles was 286300, a year-on-year increase of + 422.97%, accounting for about 25% of the market in the first quarter. According to the company’s performance express, the net profit in the first quarter was 650-60 million yuan, of which Byd Company Limited(002594) electronic profit was 100 million yuan, and the rest of the profit contribution is expected to come from automobile and battery business. Therefore, the company’s new energy vehicle sales soared in the first quarter, driving a significant improvement in profits.
(II) the production capacity is climbing month by month, and the high priced models are in large quantity. The company’s performance is expected to improve quarter by quarter
We expect that the company’s new energy passenger vehicles will produce 120000 ~ 130000 vehicles in April, and the production capacity will be released in an orderly manner, with an increase of about 20000 vehicles / month in a single month. It is expected that the production capacity will reach 200000 ~ 280000 vehicles / month by the end of the year. The annual production and sales target of 1.5 ~ 2 million vehicles will be achieved in 2022. Driven by new production capacity + new products, the company’s sales volume continued to grow rapidly, and the structure was optimized, driving the quarterly growth of performance. In addition, since 2022, driven by the continuous sharp rise in raw material prices, Byd Company Limited(002594) has carried out two rounds of price increases in the first quarter, ranging from 1000 yuan to 7000 yuan and 3000 yuan to 6000 yuan respectively, covering almost all its new energy models. Strong product competitiveness and brand effect ensure the sustainability of the company’s sales volume and the stability of profitability after the price rise.
(III) a number of new cars will be launched one after another, and the overseas layout is expected to blossom at many points.
According to the company’s new model planning this year, including the new models of warships and Dynasty series, 14 new products will be launched this year, and the rich product line will further enhance the company’s market competitiveness. In addition, the company’s “urban bus electrification” solution has entered advantageous markets such as the United States, Italy, South Korea, Japan and Germany, and yuan plus is the first global “strategic sea going”. The globalization strategy continued to advance.
Investment suggestion: the company’s advantages in the whole industrial chain have gradually emerged, superimposed with the completion of the matrix of medium and high-end products and the scale effect brought by the large volume of products, the loss of new energy vehicles has been basically reversed, the company’s profitability is expected to continue to improve, and the performance improvement can be expected. We slightly raised the assumption of the company’s gross profit margin. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 6.913113.23/15.328 billion, the corresponding EPS will be RMB 2.37/3.89/5.27, and the corresponding PE will be 101 / 61 / 45 times, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: 1. The risk of cost rise caused by the price rise of upstream materials; 2. Risk of sales falling short of expectations.
