In March, the social zero year-on-year growth rate was – 3.5%, and the epidemic had a significant impact on social consumption disturbance
The National Bureau of statistics released the total retail sales of social consumer goods in the first quarter of 2022 (hereinafter referred to as “social zero”). From January to march in 2022, the total amount of social zero in China was 108659 billion yuan (+ 3.3%), with an actual increase of 1.3% after deducting price factors; The total amount of social zero in March was 3423.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%, which was significantly affected by the epidemic. By region, the retail sales of urban consumer goods in March were 2969.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%; The retail sales of rural consumer goods reached 453.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%. On the whole, the epidemic in March had a great impact on social consumption, and the performance of mandatory and optional categories was differentiated. It is suggested to pay attention to medical and beauty cosmetics, gold jewelry and supermarkets.
By category, the mandatory categories are generally stable, and the optional categories are significantly affected by the epidemic
In terms of price factors, CPI in March 2022 was + 1.5% year-on-year (including food cpi-1.5%). In terms of commodity consumption, the retail sales of commodities in March was 3129.8 billion yuan (- 2.1%). By category: among the required consumer categories, the year-on-year growth rates of beverages, grain, oil, food, tobacco and alcohol were + 12.6% / + 12.5% / + 7.2% respectively, and the growth rates were + 1.2pct / + 4.6pct / – 6.4pct respectively from January to February 2022, which remained stable and healthy as a whole, which may be related to residents’ hoarding caused by the epidemic; Among the optional consumer categories, cultural office and communication equipment were + 9.8% / + 3.1% year-on-year respectively, relatively leading; Cosmetics, clothing, shoes and hats, gold and silver jewelry had a year-on-year growth of – 6.3% / – 12.7% / – 17.9% respectively, and the growth rate was – 13.3pct / – 17.5pct / – 37.4pct respectively compared with December. The overall decline was obvious, especially the growth rate of gold and silver jewelry categories with offline stores as the main sales channels. In terms of service consumption, the catering revenue in March was only 293.5 billion yuan (- 16.4%), and offline contact consumption was also significantly affected by the epidemic.
From the perspective of different channels, the online growth rate in 2022q1 is slower than that from January to February, and the offline supermarket format shows a certain resilience
In the first quarter of 2022, the national online retail sales amounted to 3012 billion yuan (+ 6.6%, with a growth rate of – 3.6pct compared with January February), of which the online retail sales of physical goods amounted to 2525.7 billion yuan (+ 8.8%, with a growth rate of – 3.5pct compared with January February), accounting for 23.2% of social zero; Among them, the online retail sales of food, clothing and consumer goods were + 13.5% / + 0.9% / + 10.6% year-on-year respectively. In addition, according to our calculation, the online retail sales of physical goods in March increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with a significant slowdown month on month. We expect that it may be related to the epidemic hindering Express Logistics (according to the data of the post office, the National Express business volume in March was – 3.1% year-on-year). In terms of offline channels, in the first quarter of 2022, the retail sales of supermarkets, convenience stores, department stores, specialty stores and specialty stores were + 3.2% / + 10.1% / – 3.3% / + 6.6% / + 1.0% year-on-year respectively, and the growth rate from January to February was + 0.2pct / – 2.7pct / – 5.4pct / – 3.7pct / – 4.3pct respectively. The business forms of supermarkets and convenience stores showed some resilience.
It is suggested to pay attention to cosmetics, medical beauty and supermarket
Since March, the national epidemic has shown the characteristics of many points, wide range and frequent occurrence, which has a significant impact on offline and online consumption. In the future, we need to focus on the impact of the epidemic and marginal changes in prevention and control policies on the industry. In terms of investment suggestions, we focus on three main lines: (1) cosmetics are relatively less affected by the epidemic, pay attention to the improvement of the competitive advantage of leading domestic cosmetics companies, and focus on recommending Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) and Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) , Nanjing Cosmos Chemical Co.Ltd(300856) , etc; (2) The main line of medical beauty focuses on the leader of medical beauty products with deep competitive barriers of high-quality track, and focuses on recommending the leaders of medical beauty products Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) ; (3) Offline consumption is the main line. Under the background of the epidemic, supermarket formats have significantly benefited from the hoarding demand of residents in the mandatory category, and pay attention to the marginal improvement of the operation of head supermarket enterprises.
Risk warning: repeated impact of epidemic situation; The operating costs of enterprises have increased.
