The negative factors improved significantly, the positive factors appeared, and the optional consumption rebound was just in time
In the previous strategy report on March 14, we stressed that the negative factors such as the decline of real estate boom and the maintenance of high shipping costs in 2021 are gradually improving. At the current time point, the improvement of negative factors is more obvious, such as the relaxation trend of real estate policy and the decline trend of shipping freight rates. While the negative factors improved, there were some positive factors, such as the central bank’s standard reduction and overweight, the steady growth of the real economy, the scientific and appropriate adjustment of epidemic control and logistics to ensure the stability of people’s livelihood, and the implementation of tariff exemption policies, superimposed with 618 new products launched by various enterprises. We expect to jointly benefit the release of consumer demand and the improvement of the valuation of the consumer sector, and the optional consumption rebound at the right time.
Recommended / benefited targets of household appliances sector
(1) white electricity and kitchen electricity: according to the calculation of the elasticity of raw material price rise to gross profit margin, we believe that the decline of raw material price in the later stage will bring great performance repair, and the price increase strategy can better hedge the impact of raw material price rise. The resumption of the historical real estate policy is relaxed. It is expected that the continuous relaxation of the real estate policy will be beneficial to the improvement of the valuation of household appliances. Recommended white and kitchen faucets Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) and Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) ; Recommend Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) , Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) , which will continue to lead the development of integrated stove industry. (2) Home appliance growth stocks: focus on 618 and pay attention to the trend of new products. It is recommended that new products for domestic sales exceed expectations, and Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , with a new superposition of low base and good on 2022q2 for export; Recommend Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , which can broaden the price band of T10 series new products; Recommend Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) . (3) Home appliances going to sea: pay attention to the continuation of the downward trend of sea freight rate, and repair the performance valuation under tariff exemption. It is recommended that Anker Innovations Technology Co.Ltd(300866) , with a large profit recovery elasticity and the pressure on the revenue side is expected to be gradually relieved under the decline of sea freight rate; It is recommended that the tariff exemption drive the improvement of profits and maintain the stable revenue fundamentals of JS global life; It is suggested to pay attention to the leader of export OEM Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) and the steady progress of export market Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) . (4) Upstream of household appliances: it is recommended that the OEM industry grow steadily, and the EPS motor volume is expected to be Ningbo Dechang Electrical Machinery Made Co.Ltd(605555) . Object of benefit: Zhejiang Dun’An Artificial Environment Co.Ltd(002011) .
Light industry: the real estate policy continues to be relaxed, focusing on the allocation value of head enterprises
Under the background of steady growth and wide credit, the real estate policy was blowing frequently in 2022, and specific measures have been implemented in many cities. At the same time, the marginal data at the real estate sales end was repaired in March. Looking forward to the whole year, we believe that with the continuous increase of real estate easing policy and the gradual release of real estate credit risk due to the increased implementation of urban policies, the valuation of real estate industry chain is expected to improve. It is suggested to pay attention to the valuation repair of home sector suppressed by the early real estate pessimism, and focus on Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) , Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) , Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) . In addition, we recommend smore international, an excellent OEM target after the risk release of China’s regulatory policies.
Textile and clothing industry: it is recommended to pay attention to the leaders of undervalued sports brands and excellent OEM targets with stable performance. From January to February, China’s leading sports brands and downstream retailers performed well. However, the epidemic in March also affected Online + offline, which is expected to seriously drag down the performance of 2022q1, superimposing the impact of the high base caused by the Xinjiang cotton incident in the same period of 2022q2. At present, the valuation of high-quality leading targets is at a low level, providing layout opportunities. We expect that the epidemic prevention policy will be adjusted appropriately and scientifically. If the epidemic situation in China is effectively controlled from May to June, it is still possible to drive the retail performance of 2022q2, and the long-term investment logic is not broken. Special step international, Li Ning, taobo and Anta sports are recommended. In addition, excellent OEM targets Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Shenzhou International with steady performance are recommended.
Risk tip: the recovery of real estate is less than expected; Rising prices of raw materials; Rapid rebound in sea freight rates, etc.
