Event:
The national energy administration and the National Bureau of statistics released the data of power consumption and energy production of the whole society in March 2022: from January to March, the power consumption of the whole society was 2042.3 billion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, of which 694.4 billion kwh was consumed in March, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5%; In March, the power generation was 670.2 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%; The output of raw coal was 396 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%; The output of natural gas was 19.7 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%.
Key investment points:
Electricity: in March, the growth rate of electricity consumption slowed to 3.5%, and the growth rate of hydropower reached 19.8%
Power consumption: in March, disturbed by the epidemic in some areas, the power consumption of the whole society was 694.4 billion kwh, with a year-on-year growth rate slowing to 3.5%. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 5.0% year-on-year in March, and the PMI was 49.5%, returning below the boom and bust line. By industry, in March 2022, the primary, secondary and tertiary industries were 12.3%, 2.3% and 4.0% year-on-year respectively; The domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents increased by 8.8% year-on-year.
Power generation side: in March, the total power generation was 670.2 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, and the growth rate slowed down by 3.8 PCT compared with that from January to February. In terms of varieties, hydropower increased by 19.8% year-on-year, 11.6pct higher than that from January to February. The high growth rate is due to the low base number caused by the dry incoming water last year and the abundant incoming water in this period; Wind power generation increased by 23.8% year-on-year (down 7.6% year-on-year from January to February) Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation increased by 16.8% year-on-year, an increase of 10.3pct compared with January February; Nuclear power increased by 2.2% year-on-year. Against the background of the rapid growth of renewable energy power generation, thermal power decreased by 5.7% year-on-year, and the energy structure continued to be optimized.
Coal: self production accelerated, and the decline in imports expanded
At the self production end, in March, China’s coal production and supply policy continued to intensify. The main coal producing provinces and regions made every effort to tap the potential and expand capacity and supply. The raw coal output increased by 14.8% year-on-year, 4.5pct higher than that from January to February. On the import side, under the background of accelerated self production of coal, China’s import volume decreased by 39.9% year-on-year in March, an increase of 25.9pct compared with January February.
Gas: the growth rate of self-produced gas is steady, and the growth rate of import continues to decline
For the self-produced end, in March 2022, the natural gas production increased by 6.3% year-on-year, 0.4pct slower than that from January to February, and the growth rate of the self-produced end was stable under the tone of “increasing reserves and increasing production”. At the import end, in March, the import volume of natural gas decreased by 8.5% year-on-year, an increase of 4.7pct compared with that from January to February. High advance
Gas prices have curbed China’s import demand for natural gas.
Investment suggestion: in the industry, under the disturbance of the epidemic, the growth rate of power consumption in the whole society slowed down to 3.5% in March, but with the control of the epidemic, power consumption is expected to recover. In addition, new energy power operators are expected to benefit from the settlement of the shortage of renewable energy fund. Under the strong regulatory constraints of coal prices, we are optimistic about the month on month improvement of the profits of thermal power enterprises in the second quarter. Maintain the industry “recommended rating”. In terms of individual stocks, it is recommended to recommend Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) , China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) , and it is suggested to pay attention to the thermal power targets that are expected to improve profits Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) , Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) , Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) , China Resources Power, China power, Guangdong Electric Power Development Co.Ltd(000539) , Shenergy Company Limited(600642) ; Longyuan Power, Tianjin Guangyu Development Co.Ltd(000537) , Jilin Electric Power Co.Ltd(000875) , Nyocor Co.Ltd(600821) , China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) , Cecep Wind-Power Corporation(601016) , Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , Zhongmin Energy Co.Ltd(600163) ., CGN new energy.
Risk tip: focus on the company’s performance improvement is not as expected, the risk of continuous rise in coal price, the risk of electricity price decline, the risk of policy change, and some data in the report are calculated, which may be different from the actual data and statistical caliber.
