In March, social zero decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, and social zero increased by 3.3% year-on-year in the first quarter. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics and wind, in March 2022, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 3423.3 billion yuan / year-on-year – 3.5%; Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles were 3056 billion yuan / year-on-year – 3.0%, and the retail sales of consumer goods excluding oil and automobiles were 2862.3 billion yuan / year-on-year – 4.0%. Affected by the epidemic, the growth rate fell month on month. Overall, in the first quarter of 2022, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 108659 billion yuan / year-on-year + 3.3%, and the CPI increased by 0.9% / 0.9% / 1.5% year-on-year in January, February and March respectively. After deducting price factors, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in the first quarter of 2022 actually increased by 1.3% year-on-year.
By category, under the influence of the epidemic, the growth rate of mandatory products is higher, and the growth rate of most optional products has decreased more month on month. Among them: 1) under the influence of the epidemic, the mandatory rigid demand attribute is prominent, and the growth rate is high in March, or it is related to hoarding behavior. In March 2022, grain, oil, food / beverage / tobacco and alcohol / daily necessities increased by 12.5% / 12.6% / 7.2% / – 0.8% year-on-year, with a chain ratio of + 4.6pct, + 1.2pct, – 6.4 PCT and – 11.5pct respectively. 2) The growth rate of most optional categories decreased significantly month on month. In March 2022, gold and silver jewelry / textile and clothing / cosmetics / household appliances / furniture / automobile were – 17.9% / – 12.7% / – 6.3% / – 4.3% / – 8.8% / – 7.5% year-on-year, with a month on month ratio of – 37.4pct / – 17.5pct / – 13.3pct / – 17.0pct / – 2.8pct / – 11.4pct respectively; Chinese and Western medicines / stationery / communication equipment / Petroleum and products / building materials were 11.9% / 9.8% / 3.1% / 10.5% / 0.4% year-on-year, with a chain ratio of + 10.5pct / + 12.5pct / + 10.7pct / + 4.7pct / + 4.1pct respectively. Some categories are related to price increase. 3) Throughout the quarter, cosmetics / gold and silver jewelry / household appliances / Chinese and Western Medicine / stationery in the optional categories achieved positive growth.
The impact of cities and towns is greater than that of villages, and the impact of catering is greater than that of retail. 1) In terms of sub regions, in March, the retail sales of urban consumer goods reached 2969.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6% (an average increase of 2.8% in three years, with a growth rate of – 1.7 PCT month on month); The retail sales of rural consumer goods reached 453.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% (an average increase of 3.5% in three years, with a growth rate of + 0.3pct month on month). 2) In terms of classification, in March, the retail sales of goods reached 3129.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%; Catering revenue was 293.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4%; Catering has a greater impact than retail. 3) By channel, the online retail sales of physical goods in the first quarter of 2022 were 225257 billion yuan / year-on-year increase of 8.8%, accounting for 23.2% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods (year-on-year + 1.3pct); Among the online retail sales of physical goods, food, clothing and consumer goods increased by 13.5%, 0.9% and 10.6% respectively. 4) According to retail formats, the retail sales of supermarkets, convenience stores, specialty stores and specialty stores in retail units above Designated Size in the first quarter increased by 3.2%, 10.1%, 6.6% and 1.0% respectively year-on-year, and the retail sales of department stores decreased by 3.3% year-on-year.
Investment suggestion: on the whole, the epidemic in many places in March 2022 had a great impact, and the consumption and travel data fell significantly, with a year-on-year negative growth; We expect that it will take some time for the production and operation of Shanghai and other places and the recovery of urban travel. Even if it is liberalized, the epidemic will still have a certain impact on subsequent consumption and travel data. In this context: 1) continue to recommend the supermarket sector leader. Focus on the recommendation of April gold stock Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , and regional leaders are expected to open the valuation space accordingly; 2) Pay attention to the medium and long-term allocation value of meituan. As a leading Internet enterprise with scale advantages and efficiency barriers, it operates well in various indicators in the early stage and has strong business resilience during the epidemic. If the epidemic recovers in the follow-up, it is expected that the local demand elasticity will be large; 3) Continue to recommend the recovery sector. As the leading subject of large market value, China free is currently the subject of high cost performance and great flexibility. On the premise of poor consumption data, it is the subject that is most likely to improve the actual margin of short-term data in the recovery sector; The hotel still benefits from both pattern and recovery; Once the recovery expectation is optimistic enough, the scenic spots and catering targets are expected to release elasticity. 4) It is suggested to pay attention to the leading targets in Anker Innovations Technology Co.Ltd(300866) and other subdivided fields with long-term growth and relatively low current valuation.
Risk tip: the overall consumer demand is weak or the epidemic breaks out again on a small scale; Industry competition intensifies; The expansion of leading enterprises is less than expected; The investment in marketing, innovation and Exhibition stores of listed companies has increased significantly.
