Key investment points:
The annual shipment volume exceeds 10 million, which is expected to enter a new stage of rapid growth. With the launch of Quest 2, the shipment of VR head display equipment has increased rapidly, with an annual shipment of more than 10 million units, and the penetration and penetration rate of terminal equipment are gradually improving. However, since VR technology is still in the relatively early stage of "partial immersion", mass consumers have low awareness of it, and lack of core application scenarios to drive the public's demand for VR / ar, Therefore, VR / AR has not been able to enter the field of mass consumer electronics like smart phones, and it is still focused on small groups.
5g network promotes the upgrade of use experience and accelerates the penetration of hardware. At present, 5g network is entering a critical stage of rapid development. The advantages of low delay, high speed and large capacity help VR / AR devices improve picture resolution, reduce Caton delay and dizziness, and experience more natural and comfortable, so that VR / AR can adapt to more application scenarios. At the same time, the way of cloud computing can also help VR / AR terminals develop in the direction of lightweight, reduce hardware cost and further accelerate the penetration of VR / AR terminals.
Apple's ar terminal will be launched, which is expected to lead the development of the industry. Apple is expected to launch ar products in 2023. Considering various factors such as brand positioning, production cost and the current low penetration rate of AR, in the short term, the pricing of Apple ar products may be high and the penetration rate is difficult to compare with that of mobile phones. However, based on the leading position of Apple series phones in the development of smart phones in the past, we believe that Apple's ar products may lead the development of AR industry and promote the AR field into a new round of growth cycle. After the breakthrough of future technology and the reduction of marginal cost, the price of AR terminal is expected to decline, and there will be consumer grade ar terminal equipment that can have both performance, price and application ecology like Quest 2.
There is still much room for VR / AR application scenarios. From the perspective of current application scenarios, the application scenarios of VR are still in the stage of C-end leading. Games, video and education bear the main application scenarios of current virtual reality technology, while AR is mainly concentrated in b-end, with scattered application scenarios and weak entertainment attributes. If VR / AR technology makes further breakthroughs in the future and the industrial system becomes more mature and perfect, the application scenarios will naturally be expanded. Based on its immersive characteristics, VR technology will explore more possibilities to a more vertical and in-depth experience field. At the same time, with the improvement of device lightweight, portability and penetration, VR technology will gradually broaden the application scenarios, get rid of a single game function, and play a greater role in social networking, work, education, live broadcasting, shopping and other fields. Based on its interaction with the real world, lightweight and mobile characteristics, AR will be expanded to more personalized application scenarios such as social networking, work, entertainment and life. However, no matter VR or AR technology, the core of the development of application scenarios is to deeply integrate with various industries, so as to make up for the defect that current mobile terminals can not realize all kinds of immersive experience. After the continuous iterative upgrading of hardware technology and the broadening of application scenarios, the flywheel effect of VR / AR industry will gradually appear, forming an effective supplement to mobile terminals, and may even replace mobile phones to a certain extent, becoming the next generation of general-purpose terminal equipment.
In the short term, the current VR and AR application scenarios have high certainty, fast landing speed and high degree of commercialization. The game field is still large-scale. At present, large-scale games and small and medium-sized games coexist in the field of VR games, and the competition pattern is uncertain. Even small and medium-sized game developers can break the game through differentiated and innovative products. Based on the core development logic that the content of the game industry is the king, it is suggested to pay attention to the game companies that have layout in the VR field through investment or self research, such as: Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) , Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) , Wuxi Boton Technology Co.Ltd(300031) , Kingnet Network Co.Ltd(002517) , Shanghai Fengyuzhu Culture Technology Co.Ltd(603466) , Guangzhou Wahlap Technology Corporation Limited(301011) , etc.
At one end of the hardware industry chain of VR / AR, the current mainstream consumer grade VR terminals can basically meet the use needs, while the popularity of AR hardware lags behind. In the future, VR terminals will break through and develop in the direction of lighter weight, higher definition, higher refresh rate, longer battery life, lower delay and more diversified interaction modes. It is recommended to pay attention to the investment opportunities related to the technology update and iteration of VR / AR hardware equipment.
Risk tip: the slow progress of technological breakthrough leads to lower penetration than expected; VR / AR applications may be cracked, resulting in damage to the interests of the content party; Regulatory risks of China's content policy
