This week’s view
The power equipment and new energy index fell 6.53% this week, and most segments fell sharply. The market is worried that the downstream demand will weaken significantly, affecting the annual expectation of the industrial chain. From the perspective of production scheduling, the high nickel positive electrode, diaphragm and negative electrode were flat month on month, the lithium iron phosphate increased by 7% month on month, and the battery end decreased by 3.5%. Although the terminal demand was weakened due to the epidemic and other factors, the production scheduling of lithium battery materials was basically flat month on month. From the perspective of industrial chain, this is only a delay in demand.
In the first quarter of this year, the overall upstream material inventory is low, and some companies are even less than a week. The delay of demand caused by the epidemic will lead to passive replenishment in the middle and upper reaches, which is conducive to the fall of short-term upstream material prices, or have a positive impact on the subsequent demand outbreak. The epidemic has a great impact on the terminals of new energy vehicles. The demand and delivery of vehicle orders fell significantly in April, but the consumption of new energy vehicles will not disappear, but will be delayed. May and June after the epidemic are expected to usher in a large rebound, and April may be the worst month of production and sales.
We believe that the recent market is the result of feedback from many negative factors, mainly reflected in the risks of the epidemic, geopolitics and liquidity, but most of the risk factors have been reflected in the stock price in advance. Subsequently, with the arrival of the inflection point of the epidemic and the orderly promotion of resumption of work and production, the market is expected to return to rationality. Recommend diaphragm and lithium battery with excellent competition pattern, focusing on Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) etc.
Some company dynamics
Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) ( Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) ) announced on the evening of April 14 that the net profit in the first quarter was 1.498 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 422.19%. The company also announced that it plans to invest in the construction of “iron phosphate project with an annual output of 300000 tons (phase II)” through Yichang Tianci, a holding subsidiary, with a total investment of 1.005 billion yuan. After the completion of phase II project, it is expected to achieve an average annual operating income of 2.248 billion yuan and an average annual net profit of 227 million yuan. (company announcement)
Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ( Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ) the annual report was disclosed on the evening of April 11. In 2021, the operating revenue was 7.982 billion yuan, an increase of 86.37% year-on-year; The net profit was 2.718 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 143.60%; The basic earnings per share is 3.06 yuan. The company plans to pay a cash dividend of 3.03 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares. Benefiting from the rapid growth of the market in the field of new energy vehicles and energy storage, the revenue scale and profitability of the company’s lithium battery diaphragm business increased significantly. During the reporting period, the company’s lithium battery diaphragm shipment exceeded 3 billion square meters, and the market share maintained the leading level in the industry. (company announcement)
Risk tips
The risk of intensified market competition, repeated epidemic and subsidy policy.
