Event:
On April 18, 2022, the Ministry of culture, culture and tourism released China's tourism data for the first quarter of 2022. In the first quarter of 2022, the total number of tourists in China was 830 million, a decrease of 194 million or 19.0% over the same period of last year; China's tourism revenue (total tourism consumption) was 0.77 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.03 trillion yuan or 4.0% over the same period last year.
Comments:
The number of tourists in Q1 was lower than expected due to the spread of the epidemic, and the tourism revenue increased slightly year-on-year. According to the statistical results of China's tourism sample survey, in the first quarter of 2022, the total number of Chinese tourists was 830 million, a decrease of 194 million or 19.0% over the same period of last year. Among them, 621 million urban residents visited, down 11.4%; The number of rural residents traveling was 209 million, down 35.3%. China's tourism revenue was 0.77 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.03 trillion yuan or 4.0% over the same period last year. Among them, the tourism consumption of urban residents was 0.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.4%; Rural residents' tourism consumption was 0.14 trillion yuan, down 14.5%. The number of tourists was significantly lower than the 973 million person times previously expected by China Tourism Research Institute in the tourism economic situation in the first quarter of 2022 and the outlook for the first half of the year, but the tourism revenue achieved positive growth year-on-year, exceeding the previous expectation of 0.64 trillion yuan. 22q1 China's epidemic further spread to 28 provinces and cities. Under the restriction of epidemic prevention measures, many inter provincial tours were blown, resulting in a sharp year-on-year decline in the number of tourists. From the holiday data, the number of Chinese tourists during the Spring Festival and Qingming holidays recovered to 73.9% and 68% respectively in the same period in 2019, and the tourism revenue recovered to 56.3% and 39.2% respectively in the same period in 2019. The willingness to travel gradually declined with the spread of the epidemic. 22q1 per capita tourism consumption was about 928 yuan, down about 6.05% month on month.
Tourism retail sales increased significantly. According to Haikou customs, in the first quarter of 2022, Haikou customs supervised 14.72 billion yuan of duty-free shopping in Hainan outlying islands, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year; The number of shopping pieces was 20.27 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%; The per capita shopping amount was 8372 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%. Under the impact of the epidemic, the tax exemption of Hainan outlying islands has achieved double-digit growth, which is still affirmed by consumers while the discount of most goods has decreased, which means that the tax-free goods of outlying islands have gradually formed a consumption attraction after 11 years of cultivation. It is optimistic that the tax exemption of outlying islands will drive the rapid growth of tourism income after the epidemic is controlled.
Investment strategy: at present, the epidemic situation in China is still severe, and the demand for tourism travel may be under pressure in the short term. However, the recent breakthrough in the research and development of domestic covid-19 specific drugs has boosted the confidence of epidemic control. From the perspective of the recovery of tourism economy in major countries around the world, the certainty of epidemic control is high. It's suggested to focus on scenic spots that are expected to benefit from China's controlled epidemic in China. It's suggested to focus on the kind of stock that could be expected to benefit from China's controlled epidemic. It's suggested to focus on the tax-free dragon. It's suggested to focus on the tax-free dragon. It's suggested to focus on the tax-free dragon. It's suggested to focus on the tax-free dragon. It's suggested to focus on the proposed focus that is expected to be able to benefit from the number of scenic spots that are expected to benefit from China's controlled epidemic in China's controlled epidemic, and also benefit from the class stocks like like like Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) \ ( China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ), catering + prefabricated dishes Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) ( Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) ) Jinling Hotel Corporation Ltd(601007) ( Jinling Hotel Corporation Ltd(601007) ), benefiting from the recovery of outbound tourism Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) ( Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) ), Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) ( Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) ), Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) ( Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) ), Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) ( Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) ), etc.
Risk tips: intensified industry competition, lower than expected tourism consumption caused by macroeconomic downturn, repeated covid-19 epidemic and tightened epidemic prevention measures to restrict tourism travel, and lower than expected research and development of domestic covid-19 drugs.
