Events
On April 18, 2022, the National Bureau of statistics released the retail data of social consumer goods. 1q22 the total amount of social zero was 108659 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, and the catering income of social zero was 1065.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, of which the catering income of units above the quota was 240.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%; In March 2022, the total amount of social zero was 3423.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%, and the catering income of social zero was 293.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4%, of which the catering income of units above the quota was 72.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.6%.
Commentary
In March 2022, the catering industry was under overall pressure due to the intensification of the epidemic in some areas. In March, the catering revenue of social zero decreased by 16.4% at the same time, lower than the overall social zero by 12.9pct, a decrease of 13.5% compared with the same period in 2019. 1q22 social zero catering revenue increased by 0.5% at the same time, lower than the overall social zero by 2.8pct, an increase of 0.1% over the same period in 2019. In March, the epidemic situation in Shenzhen, Shanghai, Jilin and other places intensified, and the closure of offline restaurants increased significantly. It is expected that brands with a high proportion of shopping malls or first tier cities will be more affected. In addition, there is also a point like recurrence of the epidemic in other parts of China, and the overall pressure on catering consumption.
The decline of Catering Enterprises above the designated size is less than that of the industry as a whole, and the proportion continues to increase. The overall branding and chaining are still the general trend. In March 2022, the catering revenue of units above the quota decreased by 15.6%, 0.8pct higher than the overall catering and 12.1pct lower than social zero, an increase of 0.3% over the same period in 2019, accounting for 24.8% of the overall catering and an increase of 1.4pct year-on-year (the proportion of Enterprises above the quota in social zero increased by 1.2pct year-on-year); 1q22 the catering income of units above the quota increased by 0.9% at the same time, 0.4pct higher than the overall catering and 2.4pct lower than the overall social zero, an increase of 8.2% over the same period in 2019. The anti risk ability of Catering Enterprises above the quota is relatively high, the decline range is lower than that of catering as a whole, and the proportion continues to increase, or the industry edge clearing effect is more obvious due to the re intensification of the epidemic, and the survival difficulty of start-up brands is further increased. We believe that the long-term trend of brand and chain in China’s catering industry remains unchanged.
Under the background of repeated epidemics, consumers’ catering demand has changed to take out and prefabricated dishes, paying attention to the recovery of transportation capacity. According to the data of Guojin digital research center, the catering index of cities at all levels fell in March, among which the first tier cities fell the most seriously. However, except for the first tier cities, the takeout index increased by different ranges in other cities, or because most takeout in the first tier cities were suspended and the transportation capacity was limited. In March, the prefabricated dishes on tmall platform increased by about 15% at the same time, while the overall Gmv of tmall decreased by about 15%, reflecting the rising demand for home hoarding under the background of the epidemic. However, the transfer of catering demand to takeout and online in Shanghai and other places is still limited by insufficient transportation capacity. On April 14, the special class of traffic control and transportation support of the comprehensive group of the prevention and joint control mechanism of the State Council issued a notice on doing a good job in ensuring the smooth transportation of freight logistics. Many ministries and commissions such as the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of transportation subsequently responded. In addition, e-commerce platforms such as jd.com increased transportation capacity to Shanghai, and takeout platforms actively helped the distribution personnel return to their posts. It is expected that with the more accurate implementation of prevention and control measures and the recovery of the supply chain, prefabricated vegetables Takeout is expected to undertake more offline catering demand transfer.
Investment advice
We maintain the rating of “overweight” in the industry. According to the social zero data in March, the catering industry is under obvious pressure under the aggravation of the epidemic, and the anti risk ability of Catering Enterprises above the quota is relatively better than the industry as a whole. In April, it is expected that the catering industry is still under pressure, but the supply chain recovery situation is better. It is suggested to pay attention to: 1) the demand for prefabricated dishes and quick-frozen foods in the home scene is increasing, and relevant targets such as Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) , Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) , etc; 2) Lock in the breakfast scene, launch the group meal business, and is expected to benefit from the gradual recovery of Shanghai takeout Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) ; 3) Jiumaojiu with high efficiency and strong anti risk ability of single store model.
Risk tips
Repeated epidemic risks, the recovery of terminal demand is less than expected, and the industry competition is intensified.
