Core view (04.11-04.15)
Home furnishing: the fundamentals are expected to improve, superimposed with low valuation, and the investment opportunities of head enterprises are highlighted. The real estate policy continues to work. Cities continue to release real estate deregulation policies due to urban policies. The prosperity of the real estate industry is expected to rise, which will drive the fundamentals of the home industry to pick up and improve the valuation. The epidemic has repeatedly disturbed the short-term operation of home, and the demand for home decoration has the attribute of rigid demand. It is expected to be released in a centralized manner with the improvement of the epidemic in the future. Head home furnishing enterprises lead the industry reform, continue to promote category integration, strengthen traffic competitiveness, and the concentration is expected to accelerate. At the same time, the valuation of the household goods sector is at an all-time low and highly cost-effective. On April 16, the pe-ttm of the household goods sector reached 24.91, and the market quantile was as low as 8.79%. It is suggested to pay attention to: [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ], [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ], [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ], [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ] and [Minhua holdings].
Packaging: the market is better controlled, the profit is restored, and the business is vertically expanded and integrated. Paper packaging: benefiting from the trend of environmental protection, the paper packaging industry is expected to expand, but the market concentration is low and needs to be improved; Leading enterprises began to transform from manufacturers to packaging solution providers, and their business achieved vertical development. Plastic packaging: the market scale is growing steadily and the market concentration is low; Ordinary plastic packaging is widely used downstream, with fluctuating demand and fierce competition; The technical barrier of special materials is high, and the leading enterprises can rely on the technical barrier to build a strong moat. Metal packaging: the rise in the price of raw materials and the improvement of supply and demand pattern will improve the profitability of enterprises; Drinks and drinks are the main downstream applications of metal packaging. Compared with overseas, there is a wide space for the improvement of beer canning rate in China, and the downstream demand of metal packaging will continue to develop. It is suggested to pay attention to: [ Shanghai Ailu Package Co.Ltd(301062) ], [ Org Technology Co.Ltd(002701) ] and [ Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) ].
Light industry consumption: the electronic cigarette industry has grown significantly, and the stationery industry market continues to expand. E-cigarette: the national standard will be officially implemented, the industry threshold will be raised, and the share of leading cities will be increased. At the same time, the international market is expanding steadily and the demand is broad; The Chinese market has the largest group of smokers in the world, and the penetration rate of e-cigarettes is at a low level. With the industry entering the stage of standardized development, the Chinese market is expected to grow steadily. Stationery: China’s per capita stationery consumption continues to increase, and the consumption upgrading will continue to benefit the growth of C-end business. At the same time, driven by the procurement policy, the market prospect of b-end office direct sales business is broad; Chenguang continued to optimize the layout of traditional core business, adjust the product structure, Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) coordinated development, the business of large retail stores continued to improve, and the office direct sales business grew rapidly, fully benefiting from the structural opportunities brought by industry changes. It is suggested to pay attention to: the leader of electronic cigarette industry [SIMORE international] and the leader of stationery industry [Chenguang Co., Ltd.].
Papermaking: the pressure on the industry has accelerated, the concentration has increased, the pulp price has risen, and the performance elasticity of downstream enterprises can be expected. Waste paper: as of April 15, the price of waste yellow paperboard was 2347 yuan / ton, up 0.21% from last week; The price of corrugated box board was 3818 yuan / ton and 4867 yuan / ton respectively, up 0.16% and 0.16% respectively compared with last week. Pulp and paper: as of April 15, the prices of broad-leaved pulp, coniferous pulp and chemical mechanical pulp were 6011, 7125 and 5483 yuan / ton respectively, with changes of – 33, 119 and 50 yuan / ton respectively compared with last week; The prices of double offset paper, double copper paper and white cardboard were 6238, 5680 and 6450 yuan / ton respectively, with changes of 0, 0 and 1.02% respectively compared with last week. Special paper: in the short term, the raw materials of special paper are mainly pulp and chemical raw materials. The rise of pulp price supports the continuous rise of special paper price, and the performance flexibility of head enterprises can be expected; In the medium and long term, the downstream demand of special paper continues to expand, the competition pattern is good, and the leading enterprises continue to carry out capacity construction and layout self-sufficient pulp, with significant long-term growth of performance. It is suggested to pay attention to: pulp and paper is the leading [ Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) ]; Special paper faucet [ Quzhou Wuzhou Special Paper Co.Ltd(605007) ], [ Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) ], [ Hangzhou Huawang New Material Technology Co.Ltd(605377) ].
Risk tip: the risk that the economic growth is less than expected; Risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices.
