Recently, the National Bureau of statistics released the output data of the building materials industry in March 2022 and some building materials consumption data.
In March, the cement output remained declining. From January to March 2022, the national cement output totaled 387 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%, an increase of 5.7 percentage points over January to February. In March, the monthly cement output was 187 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points over December 2021. The cement output in March has increased significantly compared with the previous two months, mainly because with the end of staggered peak and kiln shutdown in winter in various provinces, cement enterprises have gradually resumed production and the cement supply has gradually increased. However, due to the slow recovery of the cement market this year, the downstream demand is less than expected, and the insufficient starting power of cement enterprises, there is still a year-on-year decline. In April, most regional cement enterprises were put into normal operation, and the cement output will further increase compared with March.
The growth rate of infrastructure investment improved, and the performance of real estate was weak. From January to March 2022, the investment in infrastructure construction increased by 8.5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over January to February. From January to March, the investment in real estate development increased by 0.7% year-on-year, down 3 percentage points from January to February; Among them, the single month in March decreased by 2.39% year-on-year. From January to March, the new construction area of houses decreased by 17.5% year-on-year, 5.3 percentage points lower than that from January to February. The speed-up effect of the issuance of special bonds was obvious, which provided financial guarantee for infrastructure investment projects and made the infrastructure investment grow steadily in March. It is expected that with the subsequent implementation of more special bonds to the project, the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to further improve, and the demand for cement in the infrastructure market will increase. Real estate investment did not improve significantly in March, and the demand for cement at the real estate end was weak. However, under the tone of steady growth, the real estate policy will continue to work this year. It is expected that the follow-up real estate business will stabilize and recover, driving the demand of the cement market.
In December, the glass market demand weakened and the output remained stable. From January to March 2022, the output of flat glass was 253 million weight boxes, with a year-on-year increase of 2%, which was the same as that from January to February. Among them, the output of flat glass in a single month in March increased by 2.2% year-on-year. From January to March, the completed area of houses decreased by 11.5% year-on-year, 1.7 percentage points lower than that from January to February. In March, the completed area of real estate decreased, the market demand for flat glass weakened, and the output of glass maintained a stable growth, making the inventory of glass enterprises at a high level. In March, the weekly inventory of float glass enterprises was 51.9 million weight boxes, an increase of 73.07% year-on-year and 26.84% month on month. At present, the shortage of funds at the downstream completion end still exists, and the recovery of glass market demand is slow. It is expected that the situation at the end of subsequent completion will gradually improve, and the market demand for flat glass is expected to increase.
The consumer building materials market remained stable. From January to March 2022, the retail sales of construction and decoration materials increased by 3.8% year-on-year, 2.4 percentage points lower than that from January to February; Among them, the single month in March increased by 0.4% year-on-year. It is expected that with the recovery of the completed end and the release of the demand for old transformation, there is still room for improvement in the market demand for consumer building materials.
Investment suggestions: recommend leading enterprises Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ( Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) . SZ), Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ( Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) . SZ), Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) ( Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) . SZ), Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) ( Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) . SZ), Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) ( Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) . SZ); Cement: it is suggested to pay attention to regional leading enterprises Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ( Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) . SH); Glass: industry leader Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ( Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) . SH) benefiting from the recovery at the completion end.
The risk indicates the risk of rising raw material prices, lower than expected downstream demand, and higher than expected new industrial capacity.
