Key points
Cautious land investment goes hand in hand with “high energy focus”; Affected by the high base and repeated epidemic, the sales of commercial housing continued to weaken; The year-on-year / month on month increase of housing prices in first tier cities fell
In March, the land purchase area was 5.01 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of – 41.0% and a month on month increase of – 40.2%; The land transaction price was 30.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 0.9% and a month on month increase of – 17.9%; The unit price of land purchase was 6047 yuan / m2, with a year-on-year increase of + 67.9% and a month on month increase of + 37.3%. From January to March, the land acquisition area was 13.39 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 41.8%; The land transaction price was 67.2 billion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 16.9%; The unit price of land purchase is 5019 yuan / m2, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 42.8%. In March, the sales area of commercial housing was 153 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of – 17.7% in a single month; The sales volume of commercial housing was 1.42 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 26.2% in a single month.
In March, the price index of new commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities was + 0.7% year-on-year, of which the first, second and third tier were + 4.3%, + 1.6% and – 0.6% respectively; The month on month ratio was – 0.1%, of which the first line, second line and third line were + 0.3%, 0.0% and – 0.2% respectively; In March, the price index of second-hand housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities was – 0.9% year-on-year, of which the first tier, second tier and third tier were + 2.8%, – 0.2% and – 1.9% respectively; The month on month ratio was – 0.2%, of which the first line, second line and third line were + 0.4%, – 0.1% and – 0.3% respectively.
The year-on-year growth rate of real estate investment in a single month turned negative; The decline of new construction and completion widened; In March, the investment in real estate development was 1.33 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 2.4% in a single month; The new construction area of houses was 149 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of – 22.2% in a single month; The completed housing area was 47.29 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of – 15.5% in a single month. From January to March, the investment in real estate development was 2.78 trillion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 0.7%; The new construction area of houses was 298 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 17.5%; The housing construction area was 8.063 billion square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 1.0%; The completed area of the house was 169 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 11.5% (January February – 9.8%), and the completion continued to be under pressure.
From January to March, the total capital for real estate development was 3.82 trillion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 19.6%; Among them, the cumulative year-on-year growth of Chinese loans, self raised funds, advance payment of deposits and personal mortgages were – 23.5%, – 4.8%, – 31.0% and – 18.8% respectively. The current epidemic has repeatedly affected the normal operation of the real estate market. The demand side is affected by factors such as the decline of expected income and the spread of credit risk. The confidence of home buyers is insufficient. The supply side is affected by factors such as the peak period of debt repayment and the decline of the market, and the pace of development slows down. Since the first quarter, various favorable policies have actively boosted market confidence. In March, domestic and foreign bond issuance of real estate enterprises took the lead in marginal improvement, waiting for the return of industry confidence and fundamental repair.
Investment suggestions: 1) since the beginning of 2022, many parties have released the capital area pole signal, the five-year LPR has been reduced by 5bp, the affordable housing loans have not been included in the concentration management, the new measures for the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds have been structurally corrected, and major banks have provided M & A financing support“ α The “risk” restoration has entered the implementation stage, and the liquidity of the real estate industry continues to ease. 2) While the liquidity is easing, China’s prudent management of real estate finance and the trend of “deleveraging” will continue to deepen, and some of the early overly radical real estate enterprises“ α “Risk” may still be exposed, but China’s real estate market“ β The overall trend of “coefficient” health and stability will not change. The high-quality real estate enterprises adhering to the principle of “moderate leverage, steady operation, quality and orderly development” will usher in the development opportunity of “orderly competition”, and gradually lead China’s real estate industry to the iterative upgrading of “rationalization of profits, refinement of management, high-quality products and green construction”. 3) On February 24, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development proposed to “meet the reasonable demand for improved house purchase”. On March 5, the government work report of the national two sessions made it clear that “support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing demand of house buyers”. We believe that the follow-up improvement of real estate credit support is expected to be improved, and the issuance of real estate bonds is expected to be large. On March 16, the meeting of the financial stability Committee of the State Council proposed that real estate enterprises should timely study and put forward effective risk prevention and resolution response plans, and put forward supporting measures for transformation to a new development model. We believe that the subsequent public offering of REITs in the real estate industry is expected to break the ice, and the first batch of most likely basic assets include affordable rental housing, commercial real estate, etc. 4) Recently, the market has paid more attention to the real estate sector and is optimistic about the long-term performance of high-quality leading real estate enterprises. Vanke A / Vanke enterprises, China Jinmao, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China overseas development, China Overseas Hongyang group, China Resources Land, Longhu group and Yuexiu real estate are recommended.
Risk analysis: the development and employment of some industries in China are less than expected, which will affect residents’ income and credit expansion; The “three red lines” of real estate enterprises superimpose the centralized debt repayment period, and the risk of credit default of some real estate enterprises increases
