Main points
This week, the household appliance sector rose by + 1.3%, of which the white electricity / Black electricity / kitchen electricity / small household appliances sector increased by + 2.8% / - 3.6% / + 1.4% / + 0.5% respectively. The price of raw materials has dropped somewhat. The prices of LME copper, LME aluminum, steel and plastics are - 0.1%, - 3.2%, - 0.8%, - 1.4% month on month respectively, and + 6.4%, + 15%, + 7.3%, + 1.6% respectively compared with the beginning of the year.
According to the data released by Aowei in March, affected by the epidemic, most optional products were under pressure in March, which dragged down the overall performance of Q1. Integrated stoves, clothes dryers and dishwashers Q1 of emerging categories maintained a high atmosphere, of which Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) sales of integrated stoves were + 24% and + 18% year-on-year respectively. In the second half of Q1, with the aggravation of the epidemic, the suspension of express delivery and the suppression of consumer demand, most optional categories were under pressure in March, which lowered the overall performance of Q1. Affected by the stagnation of express delivery, the decline of kitchen appliances dominated by online sales has widened. It is expected that after the epidemic is controlled, there may be a centralized release of demand, and the scale will be corrected. The growth rate of emerging categories is relatively high. The Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) sales of Q1 clothes dryers are + 72% and + 28% year-on-year respectively, and the Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) sales of dishwashers are + 7% and + 22% year-on-year respectively. Due to the off-line installation attribute, under the certain impact of the epidemic, the kitchen electric growth sub category integrated stove still maintained a high growth rate, and Q1 Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) sales increased by + 24% and + 18% respectively year-on-year.
According to the growth rate of e-commerce of the branch, according to Guojin digital future laboratory, the performance of leading companies in various industries is significantly better than that of the industry. The performance of the three major white power companies Haier beauty is beautiful, and tmall and JD platform have achieved positive growth year-on-year. Among them, the year-on-year growth rates of Haier Q1 tmall and jd.com online sales were + 24% and + 41% respectively. In terms of cleaning appliances, Q1 stone performed well, with sales of tmall and jd.com Platforms + 50% and + 231% year-on-year respectively. The growth rate of JD platform for small household appliances is relatively high. The growth rate of Xinbao, Xiaoxiong and Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) on tmall platform is about 10%.
Investment advice
Faced with many uncertainties in the external environment such as raw materials and shipping, it is recommended to select tracks with strong certainty. It is suggested to grasp two main lines: 1) emerging home appliance tracks with both growth and certainty, including floor sweepers, integrated stoves and projectors; The performance of the first quarter continues to be verified, and it is recommended to actively layout at this stage. It is recommended to pay attention to the domestic intelligent micro investment leader with leading technology and all-round barriers to consumer goods Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) . The logic of improving the penetration rate of integrated stoves has been continuously verified by data, and Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) , which has long-term vision of leading strategic pattern, strong brand marketing and channel power and rapid expansion of scale, is recommended. It is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) , which has strong product power and continuously reflects the effectiveness of the change of the few owners. 2) Demand and profits continue to repair, and white electricity and small kitchen appliances are expected to usher in an inflection point in the second quarter. White power recommends focusing on Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , which complies with the demand of consumption upgrading, maintains high growth, improves efficiency and governance optimization, and continuously improves profitability. The epidemic catalysed the demand for home cooking, which is expected to benefit from the centralized release of Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) .
Risk tips
The risk of rising raw material prices, the risk of less than expected demand, the risk of repeated outbreaks, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations, and the risk of chip out of stock and rising prices.
