Matters:
The State Post Office released the latest March data of the express industry. In March, the business volume of national express service enterprises completed 8.54 billion pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%; Business income reached 81.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%.
Listed companies released the data of three menstrual periods. In March, S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) express logistics business volume decreased by 7.9% year-on-year, and the unit price increased by 2.2% year-on-year Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) business volume increased by 4.4% year on year, and unit price increased by 18.3% year on year Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) business volume increased by 5.1% year on year, and unit price increased by 10.1% year on year Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) business volume increased by 8.8% year on year, and unit price increased by 13.8% year on year.
Guoxin transportation view: 1) the business volume growth of the express industry was damaged in March, with a growth rate of – 3.1%, mainly due to the negative impact on the express operation caused by the blockade and prevention and control of the epidemic in many places, including the suspension of express outlets in areas with serious epidemic, the obstruction of trunk transport vehicles in and out of the epidemic area, and the damage to the operation efficiency caused by the upgrading of epidemic prevention and control in transit centers. In the context of supervision and control, the price war in the express industry has maintained a moderate trend. However, due to the impact of the epidemic, the operating cost of express delivery rose in March, and the price of single ticket in the industry fluctuated, with a month on month increase of about 0.2 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%, and the year-on-year decrease narrowed significantly. 2) In the context of the impact of the epidemic, SF superimposed factors such as active business contraction and cost control. In March, the company’s express logistics business volume decreased by 7.9% year-on-year, and the timeliness express business also decreased year-on-year; The business volume growth of Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong decreased significantly in March, with the growth rates of 4.4%, 5.1% and 8.8% respectively. Due to the rising express operating costs caused by the epidemic, the single ticket prices of Yunda and Shentong further increased year-on-year. Benefiting from the acquisition of Jitu by Baishi, the market share of Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong increased year-on-year in the first quarter. 3) Investment suggestion: the impact of the epidemic is one-off, and the demand for short-term express delivery is more restrained than disappeared. We believe that if the epidemic lasts for a short time and recovers, the demand for express delivery is expected to rebound; However, there is some uncertainty in the development of the epidemic, which will lead to the low predictability of the short-term business growth and profitability of express companies. Under the assumption that the impact scope and duration of the national epidemic this year are controllable, the single ticket profit of Tongda company is expected to rebound significantly and the profit is expected to grow at a high speed; For SF, the company’s overall capacity is sufficient and will be able to meet the needs of business development for a long time in the future. We expect that in 2022, the company’s capital expenditure will begin to decline and the asset utilization rate will be improved. The company will continue to enjoy the cost optimization benefits brought by the four networks financing and refined operation, and the performance in 2022 is expected to be significantly repaired. Continue to recommend Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) and Zhongtong express.
