The cost continues to rise, and the new machine is equipped with the old core. Apple plans to extend the non pro version of iPhone 14 to the A15 chip of iPhone 13, and the memory will continue to use lpddr4x instead of the latest a16 chip and lpddr5 memory. On the one hand, it is due to the shortage of chip capacity and the continuous rise of cutting-edge process costs. On the other hand, it also reflects that it is no longer just chip performance that affects the mobile phone use experience.
Binning has become a trend, and cost-effectiveness has become the key. With the advancement of the manufacturing process, major manufacturers abandoned the practice of banning some chips with substandard performance and adopted the scheme of reducing the performance of some chips and selling them in the form of low-cost SKU. This method of dividing SKU by chip system can be traced back to Samsung exynos7420 chip. Based on the consideration of cost and product positioning, Apple's "pro" series chips, Qualcomm's "+" flagship chips and Kirin's "e" series chips are typical binning operations in recent years. The sharp rise of chip process cost has become an unbearable burden for large manufacturers.
The marginal benefit of process stacking decreases, and advanced packaging drives future growth. 1) With the advent of the N3 era, the cost of wafer will exceed $20000, and the cost of cutting-edge technology continues to deteriorate, Attention has shifted from transistor density to "performance per watt" "; 2) in March 2022, Apple released a new generation of m1ultra chip using TSMC's fifth generation cowos chip technology, and the unique ultrafusion chip architecture significantly improved the performance; in early March, ten giants such as Intel, TSMC, Samsung and rimoonlight established ucie to standardize the chip technology, covering all technologies based on high-density silicon bridges such as emib and info; at the same time, Samsung Electronics set up testing and packaging (TP) Center, overweight, advanced packaging, catch up with TSMC. In April, Huawei also announced a new chip stacking patent, tearing a breakthrough from the direction of advanced packaging. In the future, the heterogeneous integrated technology track will shift and speed up.
Chinese manufacturers are actively overweight, and advanced packaging is in the ascendant. In the future, the collaborative optimization of design and process or the collaborative optimization of system and process will be a great driving force to promote the progress of chip industry. Major wafer, packaging and testing and fabless manufacturers around the world are actively adding advanced packaging. According to yole's statistics, the global advanced packaging capital expenditure reached US $11.9 billion in 2021, a new high, and is expected to continue to grow in 2022. According to the company's announcement, TSMC will invest US $4.2 billion in the research and development of advanced packaging technology in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 40% Jcet Group Co.Ltd(600584) will invest $660 million in advanced packaging Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) has reached cooperation with AMD in the research and development of chiplet advanced packaging architecture. The company's 2.5/3d packaging project has been introduced to many customers and maintains a global leading position in this field.
Focus on China's sealing and testing leaders: Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) , Jcet Group Co.Ltd(600584) , Tianshui Huatian Technology Co.Ltd(002185) , China Wafer Level Csp Co.Ltd(603005) .
Risk warning: customer demand does not meet expectations; R & D progress is not up to expectations; The global economic recovery did not meet expectations
