Investment suggestions:
The performance growth of listed securities companies is significantly higher than the industry average. The growth rate of net profit attributable to parent companies of more than half of listed securities companies exceeds the overall level of the industry. On the one hand, because the caliber of industry disclosure is securities companies, mainly including parent companies, investment banking subsidiaries and asset management companies. In 2021, fund subsidiaries, alternative investment subsidiaries and international business subsidiaries all grew rapidly. On the other hand, the head securities companies have been listed, and the Matthew effect of the industry is significant. According to the disclosed annual report, nine securities companies have a net profit of more than 10 billion yuan, and Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) is the best performance in history with 23.1 billion yuan. It is also the first company in the industry to exceed 20 billion yuan. In terms of net profit growth rate, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) increased by 55% on the basis of large base, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) 2020 increased by 70%, and the growth rate still reached 50% in 2021. In addition, the year-on-year growth rates of Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) , Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) and Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) were 97.26%, 66.19% and 52.36% respectively.
It is expected that the performance of securities business in the first quarter is under pressure. At present, only Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) disclosed the first quarter express in the whole industry, realizing an operating revenue of 15.216 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.20%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.229 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.24%. Since the beginning of the year, due to the geopolitical changes and the spread of the epidemic beyond expectations, the secondary market shock has intensified, and the average daily turnover has also shrunk, which has a certain impact on the performance of securities companies, among which the self operated performance is the biggest factor.
The RRR reduction came as agreed, and the valuation of the securities industry was at a low level. The central bank decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022. The RRR reduction is a comprehensive RRR reduction, releasing a total of about 530 billion yuan of long-term funds. The RRR reduction is conducive to stabilizing market confidence, but it has a limited effect on the promotion of the securities sector. In the early stage, affected by the overall decline of the market, the valuation of the securities industry also moved down rapidly. At present, the valuation of Pb is 1.43 times, which is in the low quantile in the past decade, giving the industry a “optimistic” rating.
Industry data:
(1) wealth management
Stock market performance: as of April 15, the stock index closed lower than that at the beginning of the year. The gem index closed down 25.95%, the CSI 500 closed down 17.51%, the CSI 300 index closed down 15.21%, and the SSE 50 closed down 10.50%.
New investors: in February, 2022, 1.4146 million new investors were added, a month on month increase of +3% and a year-on-year increase of +6.82%; By the end of February, the number of investors had exceeded 200 million, a year-on-year increase of + 10.29%.
Trading volume: since 2022, the daily trading volume has remained at the level of trillion yuan. Last week, the turnover was 4.54 trillion yuan, with an average daily turnover of 0.91 trillion yuan, down -0.03% month on month.
Two financial services: as of April 14, the balance of two financial services was 1.64 trillion yuan, down from – 10.53% at the end of the previous year. Among them, the balance of financing was 1.55 trillion yuan, up – 9.45% from the end of the previous year, and the balance of securities lending was 88.967 billion yuan, up – 25.95% from the end of the previous year.
Stock pledge business: the number and proportion of Pledged Shares in the market fell month on month. As of April 8, the market pledged 414982 billion shares, down – 1.15% from the end of the previous year, accounting for 5.52% of the total share capital, down 2.65 percentage points from the end of the previous year.
(2) investment bank
According to the statistics of the listing date, the total scale of equity financing last week was 30.364 billion yuan, a month on month increase of – 10%, including 10.362 billion yuan raised by IPO, 1.065 billion yuan raised by additional issuance and 18.937 billion yuan raised by convertible bonds.
(3) investment
Bond market performance: as of April 15, the China bond – total price (gross value) index closed down 0.08% from the beginning of the year.
Commodities: as of April 8, the commodity index closed at 205.51, up 13.76% from the beginning of the year.
Revenue voucher business: in January 2022, securities companies issued 3642 revenue vouchers in total, with a new issuance scale of 109465 billion yuan. Among them, 841 revenue vouchers were issued through the quotation system, with an issuance scale of 40.09 billion yuan; 2801 revenue vouchers were issued through the counter market, with an issuance scale of 69.375 billion yuan. As of the end of the period, the existing scale was 445438 billion yuan.
OTC derivatives business: in January 2022, securities companies carried out OTC financial derivatives transactions, adding an initial nominal principal of 612449 billion yuan; By the end of the period, the total outstanding initial nominal principal of OTC financial derivatives was 2075678 billion yuan. In January 2022, the nominal principal of swap business increased by 329355 billion yuan, a month on month increase of – 24.98%; The option business increased by RMB 289.4 billion, representing a nominal increase of – 30% over the principal.
Risk tips:
The situation in Russia and Ukraine continues to deteriorate;
The secondary market fell sharply;
The epidemic situation exceeded expectations;
Capital market reform was less than expected.
