In the first quarter of 2022, China’s retail sales of social consumer goods totaled 108659 billion yuan, up + 3.3% from the same period in 2021; After deducting price factors, the actual increase is + 1.3% compared with the same period in 2021. In March, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 3423.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%. Among them, retail sales picked up in the first quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6%; Catering revenue increased by 0.5% year-on-year; In March, retail sales fell by 2.1% year-on-year; Catering revenue decreased by 16.4% year-on-year. ① Breakdown categories: in March, the growth rate of mandatory products was strong, and the growth rate of optional products generally changed from positive to negative. The growth rate of beverages, grain, oil and food, Chinese and Western medicine among the mandatory items was strong. The growth rate of optional items including gold and silver jewelry, cosmetics, clothing, shoes and hats, knitwear and textiles, household appliances and audio-visual equipment changed from positive to negative. ② Online: in the first quarter, the national online retail sales increased by + 6.6% year-on-year. In the online retail sales of physical goods, food / clothing / use goods were + 13.5% / + 0.9% / + 10.6% year-on-year respectively. The overall recovery momentum of the economy in the first quarter was good, but since March, China’s epidemic broke out at many points and prevention and control efforts have been strengthened. The sustainability of China’s consumption recovery may face short-term pressure. The following suggestions are put forward: 1. Food and beverage: the price of essential commodities will be transferred to the cost of the strong, while the price of high-end and secondary Baijiu will gradually fall. The future valuation of consumer blue chip is expected to usher in further restoration. We should pay attention to high-end, high-end Baijiu, condiments, frozen foods, prefabricated vegetables, snacks, halogen products industry. ② Beauty Jewelry: in the beauty age, the beauty jewelry market is broad and the high scenery continues. It is suggested to pay attention to the leader of beauty jewelry.
Key investment points:
Overall: the social zero growth rate was + 3.3% year-on-year in the first quarter, and fell to – 3.5% in March due to the impact of the epidemic. In the first quarter of 2022, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 108659 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3.3%, and the consumption recovery was good. However, affected by the multi-point outbreak of Omicron epidemic in March, it fell back to – 3.5% year-on-year. ① classified by consumption type, the growth rate of retail sales and catering revenue in March turned negative. Retail sales in the first quarter increased by + 3.6% year-on-year, of which – 2.1% year-on-year in March; Catering revenue in the first quarter was + 0.5% year-on-year, of which – 16.4% year-on-year in March. ② By region, the growth rate of rural and urban areas turned negative in March. In the first quarter, the retail sales of urban consumer goods were + 3.2% year-on-year, including – 3.6% year-on-year in March, and the retail sales of rural consumer goods were + 3.5% year-on-year in the first quarter, including – 3.3% year-on-year in March. ③ According to the retail format, the growth rate of convenience stores is bright. In the first quarter, the retail sales of supermarkets, convenience stores, specialty stores and specialty stores in retail units above designated size increased by 3.2%, 10.1%, 6.6% and 1.0% respectively year-on-year, and the retail sales of department stores decreased by 3.3% year-on-year.
Segmentation: in March, the growth rate of mandatory products was strong, and the growth rate of optional products generally changed from positive to negative. ① Required: in March, the growth rate of beverages above the quota, grain, oil and food, Chinese and Western medicine was strong, with a year-on-year increase of + 12.6% / + 12.5% / + 11.9% respectively. ② Optional: the growth rate generally changed from positive to negative. The gold, silver, jewelry and cosmetics with strong growth in the early stage were – 17.9% / – 6.3% year-on-year in March respectively. The clothing, shoes, hats, knitwear and textiles, household appliances and audio-visual equipment with positive growth in the early stage also fell more year-on-year to – 12.7% / – in March, but the cultural office supplies, tobacco and alcohol still maintained growth, with + 9.8% / + 7.2% year-on-year respectively. The year-on-year growth rate of online retail sales fell by 4.3%. In the first quarter of 2022, the national online retail sales reached 3012 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.6%. Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods reached 2525.7 billion yuan, an increase of 8.8%, accounting for 23.2% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods. In the online retail sales of physical goods, food / clothing / use goods were + 13.5% / + 0.9% / + 10.6% year-on-year respectively.
Risk factors: sporadic outbreak risk, consumption recovery less than expected risk and policy risk.
