Main views and investment suggestions this week
Tax exemption on outlying islands will continue to play an important role in attracting consumption return. State leaders visited Sanya International duty-free city this week and stressed the need to give better play to the basic role of consumption in economic development, create a good market environment and legal environment based on China’s super large-scale market advantages, and attract consumers with honest operation and high-quality services. According to the statistics of Haikou customs, in the first quarter of this year, the amount of duty-free shopping in Hainan’s outlying islands was 14.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, the number of shopping pieces was 20.27 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, and the per capita shopping amount was 8372 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, of which the sales of cosmetics, jewelry and watches ranked among the top three. The Ministry of culture, culture and tourism recently issued the notice on further adjusting the policies related to the quality deposit of tourism service. Travel agencies enjoying the policy of the deposit can apply to increase the proportion of the deposit to 100%. Since the epidemic, the overseas retail and wholesale business of travel agencies has been completely stopped. To ensure business continuity, many travel agency companies with outbound tourism as their main business have turned to the Chinese tourism market. Limited by the rebound from time to time of local epidemic and the environmental changes such as inter provincial travel, the operation of travel agency companies has twists and turns. The increase in the proportion of temporary deposit and the postponement of the replenishment date give travel agency enterprises with cash flow difficulties room for recovery.
Investment suggestion: in the short term, the impact of the epidemic on the overall recovery of the tourism market is still significant, and the rebound of the epidemic and the prevention and control policies affect consumers’ travel confidence. In the medium and long term, the situation of epidemic control and the R & D and landing process of covid-19 specific drugs determine the stabilization and rebound of the industry.
Market Review
Overall: the CSI 300 fell 0.99% to close at 418875 points, and the social service industry fell 0.62%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.37 percentage points, ranking ninth among the 31 first-class industries of Shenwan.
Sub sectors: the rise and fall of sub sectors of social service industry from high to low are: hotel catering (7.11%), scenic spot (- 3.29%), education (- 6.05%), tourism comprehensive (- 9.43%).
Individual stocks: Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) led the rise with 17.62% and Anhui Jiuhuashan Tourism Development Co.Ltd(603199) led the decline with 10.41%.
Industry trends:
1) Hainan promotes the opening-up of tourism consumption and attracts overseas consumption
2) experience the landscape, and the sports tourism is in full swing
3) the combination of various policies and big gifts will save the market, and the tourism industry is expected to welcome the Spring Festival in May
Announcement of important listed companies (see the text for details)
Risk tips
The impact of the epidemic on the tourism industry exceeds the expected risk; Uncontrollable disaster or emergency risk.
