Core view
Operation analysis of the transportation industry: in February 2022, the peak season of Spring Festival transportation will drive the recovery of passenger transport demand, and the high prosperity of “local new year” freight transportation will remain unchanged. Railway: railway passenger flow in February was + 33.07% year-on-year. Highway: the passenger flow of Commercial Highway in February was – 11.42% year-on-year. Waterway: the price of bulk transportation continues to adjust, and the price of centralized transportation remains high. Aviation: under the epidemic situation in February, the passenger flow of civil aviation is still suppressed, and the logic of high prosperity of air cargo remains unchanged. Logistics: the express business volume in February was + 49.63% year-on-year, and CR8 was 85.3%. New business type: 551 million online car Hailing orders in February.
Continue to grasp the recovery time of air passenger transport. Up to now, the epidemic situation in many places has been disturbed repeatedly. It is expected that the recovery time point of the air passenger transport market in 2022 may be later than expected. It is suggested to further grasp the time point of covid-19 specific drug research and development and epidemic improvement. It is suggested to pay attention to Air China Limited(601111) ( Air China Limited(601111) . SH), Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) ( Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) . SH), Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) ( Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) . SH), Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) ( Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) . SH).
Covid-19 variation superposition “changing customers into goods” stops, and the logic of high view of cross-border e-commerce logistics track remains unchanged. In the long run, the cross-border e-commerce industry has broad incremental space, and the logistics demand of cross-border e-commerce has high growth. At the same time, due to the recent emergence of covid-19 mutant strain and the superposition of the Civil Aviation Administration’s call to stop “changing passengers to goods”, it is expected that the tight supply of air cargo capacity will continue in the future, and the air cargo price may maintain a high range. Recommended Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) ( Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) . SH), Eastern Air Logistics Co.Ltd(601156) ( Eastern Air Logistics Co.Ltd(601156) . SH).
Under the new competition pattern, the first-line leader of express ushered in the opportunity of value revaluation. Since April 2021, the national level has continuously promoted the price supervision policy for the express industry and promoted the upward repair of the industry unit price. Since August, the head express company has raised the terminal delivery fee, which has exacerbated the easing of low-cost competition. After the acquisition of Baishi by Jitu in December, the industry was further cleared and the competition pattern was significantly improved. Under the current trend of rising prosperity of express companies, it is suggested to continue to grasp the upward elasticity of performance brought by the improvement of the fundamentals of front-line leaders. Be optimistic about Zhongtong Express (2057. HK), Yunda shares ( Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) . SZ) and Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) ( Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) . SH).
Continue to pay attention to the medium and long-term configuration value of comprehensive logistics leaders. At present, SF has completed the merger of Kerry Logistics. In 2022, Ezhou airport will be put into operation. At the same time, under the “four networks integration” strategy, the company has three-dimensional layout of logistics segments, further reflected the development effect of digital supply chain, and the performance explosion is worth looking forward to. Continue to recommend the medium and long-term configuration value of S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) ( S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) . SZ).
Risk tips: risks arising from repeated covid-19 epidemic, less than expected air travel demand, sharp decline in air and sea transportation prices, less than expected cross-border logistics demand, changes in international trade situation, decline in logistics demand, changes in transportation policies and regulations, etc.
