Event: the Bureau of statistics released the data of the real estate industry in the first quarter of 2022, and the investment in real estate development increased by 0.7% year-on-year; The sales area and sales volume of commercial housing decreased by 13.8% and 22.7% respectively year-on-year, and the funds in place decreased by 19.6% year-on-year.
The growth rate of real estate boom and completed real estate investment continued to decline by 30% year-on-year, and the growth rate of real estate construction area and pre payment fell by nearly 30% year-on-year.
The year-on-year growth rate of cumulative investment in real estate development decreased: the cumulative real estate investment in the first quarter was 2.78 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, and the growth rate decreased by 3.0 percentage points compared with the previous value; Among them, the monthly value was 1.33 trillion, with a growth rate of 6.1 percentage points lower than the previous value.
In the first quarter, real estate investment was close to zero growth, and the monthly investment changed from increase to – 2.4%. The downward pressure on the industry still exists. The cumulative land purchase area in the first three months was 13.39 million m2, a year-on-year decrease of 41.8%, which was a drag on the growth rate of land investment. The cumulative land transaction price was 67.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.9%, 9.8 percentage points narrower than the previous value, reflecting the promotion of the first round of centralized land supply and the recovery of the heat of land auction, which jointly led to the marginal improvement of the land market.
The monthly sales price continued to grow negatively: in the first quarter, the sales area of newly-built commercial houses nationwide was 310 million square meters, and the sales volume was 2.97 trillion, down 13.8% and 22.7% respectively year-on-year; The average sales price was 9552 yuan / m2, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%. In March, the sales area and sales volume of commercial housing decreased by 17.7% and 26.2% respectively year-on-year; The average sales price was 9252 yuan / m2, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%.
Under the impact of the epidemic, the decline in sales area further expanded in March, the sales price increased negatively year-on-year for seven consecutive months, and the prosperity of the industry continued to decline. We believe that under the background that the sales pressure still exists and the decline continues to expand, we still need to continue to make efforts to reverse the market due to urban implementation and aggregate policy.
The growth rate of construction slowed down, and the decline of new construction and completion expanded: at the end of March, the construction area of houses was 8.063 billion m2, with a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, and the growth rate decreased by 0.8 percentage points compared with the previous value. The cumulative new construction area was 298 million m2, a year-on-year decrease of 17.5%, an increase of 5.3 percentage points over the previous value; The cumulative completed area was 169 million m2, a year-on-year decrease of 11.5%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points over the previous value.
We believe that due to the negative impact of frequent epidemics in many cities on project construction, the decline of new construction and completed area in March was larger than that in the previous two months. Although the enthusiasm of real estate enterprises to acquire land in the first round of centralized land supply this year has increased, under the downward sales environment, enterprises have insufficient power to start pre-sale, superimposing the potential impact of repeated epidemics, and it is expected that new construction in the short term is still under pressure.
The decline of funds in place expanded: in the first quarter, the total amount of funds in place of national real estate was 3.82 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.6%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points compared with that from January to February. In March, the funds in place for real estate development reached 1.30 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.0%, an increase of 5.3 percentage points over the previous month; Among other funds, deposits, advance receipts and personal mortgage loans decreased by 37.5% and 22.1% respectively year-on-year, with a decrease of 10.5 and 5.2 percentage points respectively compared with February.
In the capital structure in place, the year-on-year decline of foreign capital utilization and self raised funds narrowed by 15.7 and 1.4 percentage points respectively compared with the previous value, reflecting the improvement of the issuance scale of domestic foreign debt and domestic corporate bonds of real estate enterprises and the improvement of enterprise financing capacity. The decline in loans and other funds in China continued to expand, reflecting the limited effect of credit relief due to insufficient land acquisition..
Investment suggestion: we believe that the policy is in the process of continuous improvement under the goal of stable growth. Three main lines are recommended: 1) dilemma reversal enterprises benefiting from the optimization of centralized land supply policy in the early stage: China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ; 2) Leading real estate enterprises under the continuous improvement of competition pattern: Green City China, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) ; 3) High rated steady operation private enterprises: Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Xuhui holding group.
Risk warning events: the tightening of financing environment exceeds expectations, the tightening of real estate policies exceeds expectations, and the quoted data lags behind or is not timely
